In ALL honesty, I could see any of the 4 (Wilson, RG3, Luck, Morris) getting rookie of the year. The argument could be made for any of them. As a Seattle fan, I have to say that Wilson is going to win, and it wouldn't be crazy to say it either. But RG3 is an equally safe bet.
Luck is the least likely of all 4 in my opinion, dude can throw the ball, but since Wilson, Griffin and now Kaepernick came into the scene, the days of the one sided QB are dead. Throwing the ball well worked great for Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers, but that was a different age in Football. Luck is a new version of Brady and Rogers, and yeah, he's a great QB, but Wilson and RG3 are the new and IMPROVED QBs of the new age of football. It's no longer enough to only be able to hit your target every time, you have to master the read option, rush like mad, and be all around more versatile.