All that BS about how long it takes to start up a refinery is just nonsense. If there were profits to be made by doing so it would be happening right now.
It has been purposely made unprofitable.
Hello; I am not in a position to know if any part or all is BS. I can go by what the oil company reps say or those outside the companies but who are more in the know.
A small correction. The folks i have seen on more than one occasion are not talking about how long it will take to start up a refinery. Rather they are saying the companies do not plan to spend the money to restart them at all under the current policy environment. From what one fellow said the profit margins at a refinery are not great enough to risk todays investment money with the 2030 and 2035 bans on ICE looming along with the other policy disincentives in play. My take from listening was that to be profitable the operation has to have a long term payback period. Why spend a lot now to boost refinery capacity only to have the capacity unused in seven and a half years may be the question they are pondering.
An example of how the policy environment might spook investors may be the notion currently being bandied about of a windfall profit tax aimed at oil companies. I am personally risk averse with investments and can see how the things happening currently would discourage investors.
During the lockdowns the oil companies and their related operations lost billions. However they did keep on producing and refining oil. I may have missed it but do not recall any policy actions which helped them. Now that their products are badly needed for a few years they are expected to invest millions or billions with the prospect of being cast aside if the "Green new deal" equipment takes hold. Personally I do not see the renewable green energy grid being ready in 7 1/2 to 12 1/2 years. I can see lots of coal and natural gas being burned to make electricity.
I have been involved in a discussion about some of this. Currently China is putting into operation a brand new coal fired power plant at the rate of nearly two per month. They, China, claim they will transition starting in 2030 or so but will use the coal energy for a while. I guess some of that energy goes to make solar panels and other green products they sell to the rest of the world. Sorry for the side track.
I can see how the price of diesel or gas can get high enough to get the shutdown refineries back online. I can see how some change in the policy environment in terms of favorable legislation which cannot be voided with the stroke of a pen might get investors to spend to restart the closed refineries. I am guessing at this point.
