Then just get a fish that can deal with 65-75 degrees and don't get a chiller. If you want to try to breed coldwater fish then you will definitely need a chiller since many coldwater NAs will not be sparked to breed until the water is cooler.
Anyway, with 1/10HP (~1200 BTU)you could expect the 40 gallons to be about 30 degrees cooler than the outside temp if it is run continuously, you are at sea level, and you do not have insulation.
If you can guarantee that the temp outside of the tank will always be 65-75 then you can expect to have water that is 35-45 if you have the chiller running all the time. Even a larger unit will run more often than not without insulating material. With a thermostat and and only a moderate load on the chiller say 50 percent you may be able to get 55-65 degrees and maintain it without breaking the bank.
These are just quick estimates chiller performance will vary from different manufacturers, elevation will play a big roll, and the amount of insulation will help conserve $$. Insulate the non-viewable sides, bottom, and lid. Using a compact flourescent will make less heat for the same amount of brigtness as conventional flourescent bulbs. Rewire the canopy and move the ballast out of it.
Finally, aim for 1/10HP and you can make the water about 30 degrees cooler than the maximum temp.
This is kind of why you want to pick the coldwater fish first so you can see if you have the resources and dedication to keep them happy.