Answer is actually in my post Jordan...
Otherwise it depends on the fish, it's physiologic condition ( Maturity level, Sex, Spawning / not spawning) and it's genetics... Just another fun thing about Lepisosteids and Lepisosteus osseus that needs a more clear answer and further investigation.
I have personally only seen one or two fish like this in Captivity that are true melanistic. Most of those labeled "melanistic" are often just Gators that are stressed / not fed well or Florida with a darker pattern than usual (which is really not unusual at all). I have had a few fish of my own seasonally show this...
Edit: I should note some Gators Atracosteus spatula will genetically show a darker coloration while young but this will fad out when they mature. It should however also be noted that in some fish this is a clear sign of being stressed. Know thy Garfish is a rule here.....