Thoughts:
Lyoto Machida Vs. Mauricio Rua - People have pretty much already anointed machida as the next dominant title holder in the UFC. While I agree that he certainly ahs that potential, I think we have to at least see him defend his title once before making that claim. Machida is an unbelieveable fighter, and I can see him having success for a long time, but Im not sure that Shogun is the best guy for him to start out with. I know that Shoguns style doesnt seem to make him a great challenger to Machida because it seems that his combos, while really crisp, seem sometimes to be planned out to far ahead of time, and that he just lets them go, regardless of what his opponent is actually giving him. Shoguns best chance in this fight is to work his kicks early, and stick to his jabs to score points. He also may have an advantage in the clinch game, but Machidas trips may negate that. Shogun could try and take Machida down and test him on the mat, but we havent seen much of Shoguns once praised ground game lately, so that may be tough. I am picking Machida in thia fight, because Im not sure that anybody really has a great idea on how to stop Machidas style yet, and while my heart still makes me think of Shogun in PRIDE. He just isnt that guy anymore.
Cain Velasquez Vs. Ben Rothwell - Im pretty biased here as I thin kthat Cain is probably the best heavyweight in the UFC as we speak. Rothwell doesnt look like much, but he is tough, and he does have a good amount of experience. I do believe that Rothwell has a shot here because he does have heavy hands, and if Cain is not careful (like in the Kongo fight) he could get caught, and Rothwell carries far more KO power in his hands than Kongo does. Having sadi all of that, I think Cain will win this fight, and probably pretty easily. Cains stand-up (so far) has lacked KO power, but that doesnt mean he is a slouch. His hands are fast, and for a heavyweight, he throws great combos. I think that Cain will fight on his feet a little, but I expect him to go in and take Rothwell down, and use his superior ground skills to wear Rothwell out. Also, Cains conditioning is second to none in the heavyweight division, and as this fight goes on, Cain has a major advantage. I think that this will go to decision, but I also think there is a strong possibility that Cain can ground and pound his way to a TKO victory.
Gleison Tibau Vs. Josh Neer - A lot of people are picking Neer in this fight because he is so dangerous on his feet, but I am going with Tibau. I think Tibau has a much better ground game, and he has very good takedowns. I think that Tibau will try to get in fast against Neer and take away his stand-up. I expect Tibau to control this fight on the mat and win this fight.
Joe Stevenson Vs. Spencer Fisher - This one really has the ability to be fight of the night. Both guys are in that class where they will probably never be able to be champion, but they are still very good fighters. Fisher surely has a big advantage on his feet, and he is one of the few guys with serious KO power at 155. Stevenson has an unfortunate habit of wanting to stand up and fight with guys, but his recent fight with Nate Diaz has shown me that Joe Daddy may be getting smarter as a fighter. Im guessing that Stevenson will try and get his shot going, and take Fisher down so that he doesnt have to worry about this fight ending quick. I think that if he is successful in that, he will win this fight for sure because when Stevenson is on top he can really dish it out. Im a little hesitant picking Stevenson here because Fisher is so dangerous, but I think Joe will fight the smart fight, and get a decision win.
Anthony Johnson Vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida This one is really dicey. I am a nig Judo guy, and I lean that way in mma fights, but this is a tough style match-up. Johnson is very aggressive, and he wants to knock everyone out who gets in the ring. His style is a very scary one for Yoshida to go up against. I think that if Yoshida can weather the initial storm that Johnson will bring, he can win this fight. Yoshida needs to grab a hold of Johnson, and use one of his great throws to get Johnson to the ground. I am picking Yoshida in this fight, and Im thinking it will have to be a submission victory because I dont see Yoshida knocking out Johnson, or surviving 3 rounds of trying to not get caught.
Ryan Bader Vs. Eric Schafer Bader has really surprised me, as I didnt think he would stand much of a chance at all in the UFC. He has shown that his toughness combined with very good wrestling skills are enough to get by a few UFC fights. Schafer is the guy who will put an end to Baders run though. Schafer is very skilled on the ground, and Im guessing that even though Bader knows how good Schafers jiu jitsu is, he will instinctively take him down and try to wrestle him. When he does that, Schafer will make him tap.
Antoni Hardonk Vs. Pat Barry I am a Hardonk fan, and I am looking forward to this fight because it will most likely be fought completely in the stand-up, and will feature some big shots. Both guys are tough, and both are very comfortable standing and swinging (or kicking). I think that Hardonk will make better use of his length by using strong leg kicks, and mixing his punch combos out of that. Barry has a lot of potential, but hopefully after he gets put down by another big heavyweight, he will move down to light-heavyweight where he belongs.
Yushin Okami Vs. Chael Sonnen - How is this fight on the undercard? Seriously? I get that Okami is boring, but come on. His record is solid as a UFC fighter. Anyway, now that the obligatory Okami whining is over, I expect him to continue his winning streak by putting away Sonnen. I actually think Sonnen is decent, but Okami is very good, and hopefully this win will get him closer to a serious fight, but I doubt it.
Stefan Struve Vs. Chase Gormley Not a ton of analysis here, but Struve is one the guys that I really enjoy watching. Its not often you get to see a guy who is 6-11 that is very good on the mat. I hope he grabs another win because I think he really has some potential.
