It will depend a lot on how it's built. If you just use a pond liner you'll lose obscene amounts of heat through the bottom. If you built something with insulation you could lose near nothing from the bottom. Then for the top will it be covered at all during the winter, or wide open? What will your filtration look like? What about aeration? How high is your water table, will the bottom be touching water or dirt (water has WAY more heat transfer than dirt...)????
A real answer is impossible without all of the details, and a real answer is still extremely difficult even with all of the details.
Ballpark guess though, if you don't use insulation and keep an open top probably ~3,000 Watts. If you insulate the bottom and cover the top, especially during the winter, probably 1,000.