About those fuel prices…

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dogofwar

Potamotrygon
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Such market forces would motivate fossil fuel interests to spend lots and lots of money lobbying to maintain the status quo and to discredit climate change.

One thing that occured to me some time ago, and I do believe someone alluded to it in an earlier post, or maybe in a different thread, I can't recall now, is the decision by many global nations to fast forward the electric car programme to drastically reduce future emissions and the dependence on oils, which is fair enough, and expected.

If I was a mass oil producer now and someone said that my business would be in complete turmoil in a couple of decades time because the global demand for petrol and diesel would plummet, then I'd be extremely worried. Maybe even go as far as upsetting the apple cart somewhat!

If you throw the political slant into the mix you could be looking at a severe global upset of sorts as the deadline "cut off" year approaches, maybe we've seen absolutely nothing yet.

Even though it's early days yet regarding the transition period over to complete electric, I wonder how much of the uncertainty now, is indeed down to these huge companies/governments who benefit immensely from their current situation regarding fossil fuel.

Politics, as we know, can be an extremely nasty business.
 

dogofwar

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That's the thing: there really is no actual debate in the business/financial world about what has caused global oil and gas prices to rise.

The only debate is between those who live in reality and those who wish to make up alternate realities/ explanations for higher gas prices for political reasons.

I think young hendre must be busy studying or something, he's usually quick off the mark when the tooing and froing of political debate begins, especially when it starts going pointlessly on and on and on and......zzzzzzzzzz.
 

esoxlucius

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Such market forces would motivate fossil fuel interests to spend lots and lots of money lobbying to maintain the status quo and to discredit climate change.
Maintaining the status quo and discrediting climate change to continue using fossil fuels sounds great, until the time comes when the fossil fuels are GONE!

How much global reserves have we got left? A few hundred years, a couple of thousand?

Even if everyone played ball now and stopped using fossil fuels completely we'd probably see some kind of a huge corrupt fossil fuel black market kick off.

There'd be no end to it, until the very last drops were sucked out of the planet.
 

skjl47

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Hello; I tend to watch C-spans Washington Journal many mornings. In the last few days I saw a session about oil. Turns out a big portion of the current problem is during the pandemic lockdowns some of the refineries were shut down. The person explaining this stated those refineries have not been restarted and gave some reasons. One being it is not so easy to restart the operations and to do so is expensive. A more relevant reason being these operations need to be long term to justify the expense. He laid the reluctance more directly on current policy. Why invest the major expense to get these refineries up and running if there is not a longer term prospect of recovering the investment and eventually making a profit?

Another important point being the refineries currently operating are running at near full capacity. They cannot refine any more product. The covid shutdowns resulted in a loss of a significant amount of refinery capacity. That lost capacity is part of the current issues. It becomes a bottleneck if even more crude oil is available.

Not sure if the threads on this site about covid are still around. If they are and some one wanted to look they could find that some of us were very concerned about the secondary consequences that could arise from the way thew lockdowns were handled. I was one of those who expressed concerns. The secondary problems are turning out to be even worse than expected at the time. Refinery capacity being just one of the outcomes. A point being I was critical of that administrations actions as I saw errors being made.
 

skjl47

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Maintaining the status quo and discrediting climate change to continue using fossil fuels sounds great, until the time comes when the fossil fuels are GONE!

How much global reserves have we got left? A few hundred years, a couple of thousand?

Even if everyone played ball now and stopped using fossil fuels completely we'd probably see some kind of a huge corrupt fossil fuel black market kick off.

There'd be no end to it, until the very last drops were sucked out of the planet.
Hello; I kept up with the oil questions for a long time. Back before fracking it was expected the total of the worlds oil production would peak somewhere around 2004 to 2005. That did not mean the oil would run out just that peak production would happen, called peak oil. For example in the USA peak oil production happened in the early 1970's. The wells were still producing but at a slower rate. So the stage was set for an ever decreasing volume of oil and in turn refined product. Even back then the idea the oil would actually run out was not part of the thinking. That oil production would decrease to below a point at which the energy systems in place would see shortages. It would have been a steady winding down.

Some things happened to change the story. Fracking being perhaps the more important. It was not that the old oil wells were dry of oil but the older production methods could not get at it. Fracking releases more of that oil so the old wells in the USA and else where became more productive again. Same for natural gas.
I have not kept up as well the last decade or so and cannot say anything about how long a decent amount of recoverable oil may last. But it will be a lot longer.

Another thing that changed the picture was the exploitation of the oil shales in Canada. A massive amount of oil in a form very nasty to recover. Lots of environmental impact to get at and refine that oil from the oil shale. But perhaps as much such oil as all we have used up so far.

I will stop here with one side note or two. The mining of rare earth minerals for EV batteries has similar impact to the oil shale mining. That will be a black eye of the EV movement.
 

skjl47

Goliath Tigerfish
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Hello; I kept up with the oil questions for a long time. Back before fracking it was expected the total of the worlds oil production would peak somewhere around 2004 to 2005. That did not mean the oil would run out just that peak production would happen, called peak oil. For example in the USA peak oil production happened in the early 1970's. The wells were still producing but at a slower rate. So the stage was set for an ever decreasing volume of oil and in turn refined product. Even back then the idea the oil would actually run out was not part of the thinking. That oil production would decrease to below a point at which the energy systems in place would see shortages. It would have been a steady winding down.

Some things happened to change the story. Fracking being perhaps the more important. It was not that the old oil wells were dry of oil but the older production methods could not get at it. Fracking releases more of that oil so the old wells in the USA and else where became more productive again. Same for natural gas.
I have not kept up as well the last decade or so and cannot say anything about how long a decent amount of recoverable oil may last. But it will be a lot longer.

Another thing that changed the picture was the exploitation of the oil shales in Canada. A massive amount of oil in a form very nasty to recover. Lots of environmental impact to get at and refine that oil from the oil shale. But perhaps as much such oil as all we have used up so far.

I will stop here with one side note or two. The mining of rare earth minerals for EV batteries has similar impact to the oil shale mining. That will be a black eye of the EV movement.
Hello; A different point to be made here. It is my take the two things, fracking and oil shale production, have spooked those convinced the world is doomed by carbon. When it became clear enough oil can be had to last for decades at a high production level things changed. The older notion of peak oil and oil decline starting in the early 2000's went out the window. Those convinced about the evils of carbon had to rethink. If the natural decline of oil was not going to happen some other paths were needed.

As we now know some of the issues of an EV are improved. Range is better. Still not good but better. A basic problem of getting more range seems to be how much you are willing to spend. In some models you can get more range by buying a model with a bigger battery pack at many thousands of additional cost. Expensive but I could get an EV with enough range. Still not clear to me about what it will cost to replace a battery pack. Batteries are covered for a time. I tend to keep vehicles a long time. My car is a 2001 and my pickup is a 2004. ( Part of my way to have a smaller environmental impact. Keep a vehicle in good shape for a long time avoids the impact of having a new replacement built for one thing.)
I am 74 so long term may not be much of an issue but what it may cast to get a new battery pack is still a question.

Apart from the EV is where they get a charge. The green dream is from renewables. Nice dream but decades away if ever. For now I get a lot of electricity for coal fired and natural gas fired power plants. Look at the Volvo study I linked. My 2004 pickup has 63,000 miles currently. Still would be over all cleaned that an equivalent pickup EV going by the Volvo study. My 35 MPG 2001 Nissan Sentra has 133,000 miles so has been dirtier than an equivalent EV for a while (Note- the question of a battery pack replacement looms a bit here. My Sentra is 21 years old so if it was an EV likely would have at least one battery pack replaced. )

Again my take it the current push for EV's and green energy and war on fossil fuels is premature. Green energy and EV's are not ready for prime time. Also our lives depend on fossil fuels and looks like will for many years to come. You do not wisely sink the old boat until the new boat is up to snuff.
 
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Supergeorge123

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It seems like prices have stopped going up for now. There was actually a pretty steep decline in oil prices recently, but that hasnt translated to a decline in gasoline prices.
 

Theos.dad

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The coming months will be Interesting. In my short time here on earth (35 years) astronomical gas prices are usually lowered by a recession. In my area lumber prices have and are falling. I wouldn't be surprised to see somewhat of a replay of 2007/8
 

altums85

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Just lol @ posting source from CNN and cnbc and sites like politfact.com for source just lol. U do know politifact gets donations from company like Facebook and other rich people and such right? The donaters are the one that tells politifact what to post and what not to post as facts .That site is a joke.U look at their Twitter and most of there retweets are people calling them out on bias fake news.

Brandon doesn't control the stock market but wall street and hedgefunds do. The market is corrupt and manipulated like crazy. And the SEC is letting this happen to fcuk over retailers. It's truly sad to see the corruption going on right now in the market. 2008 will repeat but this time its gonna be a lot worse than 2008. Everything going on right now IMO is political. It's always been. Our economy is bad right now but brb let's donate billions to Ukraine. Ukraine is one of the most corrupt country in the world.
 

Ulu

Potamotrygon
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If it wasn’t for the crash caused by the Obama economy, and the crash caused by the Biden economy, I could be worth twice what I am right now.

And they did this to millions and millions of people with retirement accounts.

So yeah they can both rot in hell.
 
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