You can calculate the amount of replacement based upon the assumption that what you add is pure water and what you remove is an average of what is already in the tank. This works as long as the entry port is sufficiently far from the exit port, as long as there are moderate amounts of water agitation and as long as the items being removed are soluble in water (as nitrates are.)
The following site does this type of calculation, but you can do the same on a spreadsheet.
http://www.theaquatools.com/water-changes-calculator
You are correct that there is no guarantee if the system is not setup properly or if portions of the system have little to no agitation. In those cases, the actual results can be unpredictable. E.g., tanks that add water to one end of the tank and remove it at the other end, (or in the sump) with ample agitation in between are likely to be more efficient at this process.
There are caveats of course:
1) drip systems will have higher overall average nitrate levels than manually changed systems assuming that the amount of water changed is the total same amount. As you indicated: adding 500 gallons in a drip system is not as effective as adding 500 gallons in a manual system because you are removing part of the "new" water. To get the same overall average nitrate levels, drip systems need to remove more water in total for any given period of time. (e.g., 100% of the water in a drip system versus 70% in a manual system.)
2) drip systems will have less variance than manual water change systems by virtue of changing minute amounts continuously. Manual change systems will have higher peaks and lower valleys than drip systems and as a result even though drip systems can have higher overall average nitrates, they can at the same time have lower peak nitrates. The most 'efficient' manual change systems will wait the longest to change water, which ironically is the least healthy choice for the fish.
So there are some tradeoffs independent of the time/cost/effort of doing one method or the other. Fish are injured at higher peaks and do better with more stable water. On the other hand, higher overall average nitrates may prove slowly debilitating over time. There is the added cost of using more water, although IME that is a trivial cost in the FW hobby.