I asked this before but I wonder how virus mutation works...two different strains of flu virus can exchange genetic info in the same animal(read pigs), how likely is that to happen if in the same pig lungs there are both flu and Ebola viruses?
I am happier if the answer is not very likely or impossible.
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Hello; From what I recall we are talking about an RNA virus. My knowledge is a bit dated but it is likely someone will point out any errors.
When a virus manages to invade a cell it takes up housekeeping and takes over the cell's internal mechanisms and makes it produce more virus parts. It uses it's own RNA code to make copies of itself. By the nature of using only an RNA code, there are fewer control mechanisms at work to help ensure a proper and correct copy each time. During the assembly of the new virus some errors in the code are often made. A captured cell can make a lot of new virus before it dies. Some of the new copies with the errors would be the ones called a mutation.
The virus with the altered code may be diferent enough to affect it's ability to infect another person. The mutated virus may become less lethal, more lethal and so on. It may be able to infect a different type of body cell than before. In an infected person there should likely be many changed virus copies with some changes making very little difference and others being more significant. If some of the mutated virus do have a more lethal adaptation, then that mutated copy can have a better chance of getting passed on to and infecting the next victim. The ones with mutations that do not help the virus get to the next victim can just die out I guess. It seems likely that in the past the virus has mutated but the mutated copy did not make to a new host in time because it kills the infected so quickly. Now that so many are infected at the same time the odds of a more virulent strain seems more likely.
Once a virus takes hold in a new species it tends to mutate in a manner that makes it more able to infect additional new individuals of that species. Apparently it made the leap to people from an animal. Now that it is traveling thru prople it is likely to change and be better able to both infect more people and move to different cells.
We currently have a fairly large number of people carrying the infection with the prospect of the numbers swelling in the near future. It does seem somewhat likely some will produce a virus with virus to people adptations.
On becoming truly air borne? This seems less likely as the current strains of ebola would have to mutate to have a different outer coating. Right now it does not persist well in air and we can only hope it stays that way. As discussed already moist air or mist of some sort may keep the virus viable in air for a time.
The notion that there were special circumstances in the pig to primate transmission study does not give me particular comfort. Cross species transmission is usually less likely than inter species transmission. The circumstances of the transmission in that study do not seem so very unique to me. Now that the virus is moving people to people such a high humidity/water droplet place seems somewhat common. It might give pause if someone were to sneeze in a fishroom, aquatic pet store or public aquaruiium.
Wish us all luck.
