Thats what I am getting at. They say we need 75% of us had to been infected to get to herd immunity.
It cost us 80,000 to get to where we are now. And we don't really know how many of us have been infected yet due to the testing snafu.
Are we at 10% or 25% of us have been infected. If it's 25% range so around 240k dead to get to herd immunity. What if its only 10%. 600k of us die to get there....
But it's still not gone, just so few of us left to infect it forces the spreed to slow down...
Hello; You are spot on in critical ways. There is now talk of second or third waves with some unrealistic hopes these waves can be prevented. To a degree a portion of the population might be able to shelter in place for a long term. I am in such a population since I live alone and am retired. It is possible for me to venture out only rarely for food and such necessities. There is a big if for this sort of plan. But if I do manage to avoid the virus there is a chance I might never get the virus. After some time as the virus spreads among the rest of the population there can be a herd immunity and my odds of being exposed will go way down. Yes someone like me might hide away for a long time. A question then becomes how many are in a setup like mine and can have the place and money to hide long term?
Truth is I have some chance of being exposed several times a week. I get mail in my mailbox. I treat the mail like it is contaminated. Mainly I leave it out in the sun for a few hours when possible. If it is not mail I need to deal with right away, I leave it to lay around a few days. I also take steps with my groceries to reduce risk. I may reduce the risk some but cannot eliminate all risk.
There is also the fact we all had a chance to be exposed before the shutdowns and shelter in place rules started. It seems the virus was out and about in much of the world for several weeks before we started wearing masks and sheltering in place. I am slightly suspicious I may have had a mild case of the civid19 around early Feb. Just wishful hoping until a decent antibody test is available.
(Side note - There are apparently several antibody tests around now. Problem is some give either too many false positives or false negatives. False negatives being better that false positives I guess. I liken these tests to the tests we use in our aquariums. Some use the test strips but do not trust them. Many trust the master test kits. I hope to get an antibody test near the level of trust of a master test kit. )
Sorry, I digress. Baring a game chancer such as vaccine or some other effective medical treatment there is not yet a plausible end to the pandemic other than herd immunity. I do hope a game changer comes along but until then I fully expect to be infected at some point. Being old my odds are reduced for survival but still pretty decent. Those of you who are younger have even better odds of survival. Over all so far I think well over 90% survival rate. Maybe, I suspect, could be over 99% survival after all the counts are done.
What is my point? It is baring a game changer the virus will work it's way thru the population. An important milestone is already achieved in that the "curve is flattened" and we who become infected now have a bed and such medical equipment we might need. From the start I always expected the virus to work it's way thru the populations. The so called second and third waves are to be expected.
Sorry for the redundant comments.
