Ebola round 2

[RD.]

From my experience, when an elderly person dies, unless there is some specific reason, authorities rarely look beyond death due to natural causes. Coming from someone who works in facilities where body bags are a regular occurrence, it would not surprise me if many covid deaths were missed along the way. That, and we now know that covid was in North America long before the masses were being informed, and we also now know that some deaths that early on were not attributed to covid, have now been proven to have been exactly that. So dates and timelines are constantly getting moved back. I suspect that a LOT got missed along the way.

I don't believe that anyone feels that covid was already widely around in November or December of last year. If it was, the places where I work would have been wiped out, even worse than they are now. It may have been present on NA soil, that I do believe, but most likely in very small isolated pockets. My wife is convinced I had it back in mid-late December 2019, so waiting to see what possible antibody test says, if I am able to get one. Then again, nothing saying that I would still have active antibodies, several months later - but here's to hoping!

See previous posts regarding your theory.

Where I work the term "outbreak" is common place, we have seasonal influenza outbreaks, along with norovirus outbreaks. But last fall/winter was no different than any other, across the board. I work in several different senior health care facilities on a regular basis, located in different towns & cities. I am also part of a provincial organization, which covers many other cities, including one that has been the hardest hit since covid landed here in my province. Last fall/winter the overall number of deaths from the "flu", were typical, nothing out of the norm. I suspect that you will find the same across most parts of North America.

Where I work, the residents are undeniably the most vulnerable group of people on the planet. In my country I believe the last number I read was 84% of the covid related deaths, were in the buildings where I work, nursing homes, care facilities for the elderly.

So if your theory was correct, across NA, these senior care facilities would have seen a DRASTIC jump in numbers of illness & death, last fall/winter. Yet they did not. In fact for our buildings, we had far less deaths in the fall/winter of 2019/2020, than the previous year.

 

[skjl47]

Germany they have done testing for antibodies and were shocked at the amount of people who had been infected and had no idea.

Hello; the following link is from a story that popped up on my computer this morning. While these results cannot comfortably extrapolated to other populations I do see this as being significant. Seems on a cruise ship which I presume was in a sort of quarantine they tested everyone and 80% of the infected were without symptoms.

Up to 80% of COVID-19 Infections Are Asymptomatic, a New Case Report Says

80% is a huge factor.

 

[RD.]

This is where that article is dead wrong.

"Even still, the results are a stark reminder of how likely COVID-19 is to spread within communities, and how difficult it can be to tell when it does."


Trust me, I will know. So will all of those like me, that work in senior health care facilities. Where I work the residents don't get covid, and not know it. The vast majority of the sick/elderly population die. Dead bodies are easy to count, no getting those stats wrong.

 

[skjl47]

if your theory was correct, across NA, these senior care facilities would have seen a DRASTIC jump in numbers of illness & death, last fall/winter. Yet they did not. In fact for our buildings, we had far less deaths in the fall/winter of 2019/2020, than the previous year.

Hello; I refer to my more recent post about 80% of the infected on a cruise ship were asymptomatic. If such a percentage were to hold true across other populations then a new perspective may be needed. This would imply that those who have symptoms and become ill are the outliers while most are little affected.
A report some days ago put the majority of deaths contributed to covid19 to people over 65 years of age. I made the comment some days ago that just having the covid19 alone may not be the especially fatal factor. That perhaps some other different infections may have been enough to push the already health compromised over the edge. Could be a flu or some other health stress. The difference between dying from covid19 and dying with covid19.

 

[RD.]

The cruise ship story is a bunch of hoopla, unless validated by something other than "Thorax", or whatever that publications name was. Let's get real, they don't even name the cruise line, or ship. meh

But even if that story was true, that data can in no way be extrapolated to the general population - nor should it. Sheesh.

Have you not been watching the news, not seen the devastation in the senior facilities around the world? No kidding these people are already health compromised, their immune systems barely have a spark left to them at their age. What do you reckon happens to folks that are in their 80's/90's, when the covid19 virus lands? That doesn't mean that many of these folks aren't living an otherwise comfortable, satisfying (to them) quality life, prior to that catastrophic event. One day playing shuffleboard, next week dead. You make it sound like it's a chicken/egg scenario - it's not!

I also have underlying health issues, in fact I am in the high risk category. If I get covid and die, will you surmise it was due to my being health compromised? Or gee, let me think, might it have been a covid related death, that outside of the covid virus, I may have continued to live for another 25 yrs?

Read my previous posts a couple of more times, eventually it might sink in ......

 

[skjl47]

Trust me, I will know. So will all of those like me, that work in senior health care facilities. Where I work the residents don't get covid, and not know it. The vast majority of the sick/elderly population die. Dead bodies are easy to count, no getting those stats wrong.

Hello; here we have a difference between our approaches. I try to couch my ideas as being speculation, theories or unsupported to let those reading know my thoughts are subject to revision with new facts or evidence. You claim to "know" while I do not make such claims. I add annectdotal (sp) evidence the same as you do to support my opinions, but try to avoid making absolute claims.

I do not fully understand what this latest evidence of 80% infected not having symptoms may mean but , if true, it must imply some things. I make guesses and do speculate. I do not know for sure. If true up to 80% of covid19 infected may not show symptoms then that must be considered. Right off hand I cannot think of a mechanism where such a result would only exist in isolated populations. That being the virus is asymptomatic in 35%, 50% or even 80% in only some populations, but not in the general population. Even if the final number is not 80% there is ample evidence of a significant percentage from other sources. Even the CDC has acknowledged up to 35%.

Read my previous posts a couple of more times, eventually it might sink in ......

Hello; Here I fear you have crossed into a more personal sort of insult. While I know how to respond in kind I will not.

 

[Hendre]

Relax guys, this isn't worth anyone getting into a spat.

 

[RD.]

Unlike you Dr. Jeff, I am not speculating, or basing my opinion on the latest news flash in the pan, because it may suit my own personal theory. I am basing my opinion on real world data, something that myself and my co-workers track, and have tracked, for many years. The fact is, I do know. The numbers don't lie, nor do they align with your theory - in fact, quite the opposite.

 

[RD.]

Relax guys, this isn't worth anyone getting into a spat.

Sometimes it is worth it. Maybe not this time .....

Stay safe everyone.

 

[skjl47]

Unlike you Dr. Jeff, I am not speculating, or basing my opinion on the latest news flash in the pan, because it may suit my own personal theory. I am basing my opinion on real world data, something that myself and my co-workers track, and have tracked, for many years. The fact is, I do know. The numbers don't lie, nor do they align with your theory - in fact, quite the opposite.

Hello; We disagree. I feel I can make a case for my theory. This discussion in the thread included more than just us two. You have an opinion as do I. As I explained earlier I am not a Dr., only a former biology teacher. I will decline again to call you a name in response to the Dr. Jeff bit.