Hello; Again I do not grasp the point you make exactly. I will make a stab sort of in the dark. First about my decision of decades ago. I did not at the time know for sure the assumptions I was making would come to pass. I figured they would with some confidence but also clearly understood things could go a different way. In fact I did hope to be proven wrong since my concerns would lead to unplesant outcomes. In the fullness of time many of my fears seem to either have been borne out or are seem to be in the early stages of being borne out. I made a decision based on the evidence at the time. Not expecting to save the world but more to not bring a life into a world which appeared to be on a course of significant problems.Not the study of population growth mechanics or models, but the study of population control. How do we predict and direct that?
The thing about any modeling of populations or devices or systems is that it is always based on the assumption of everything else being equal or normalized, and that is never what happens.
What happens is a series of unpredictable historical events that drives people in different directions for different reasons, which are totally unconnected to the basic reproductive urges.
Predictive models give us a platform from which to plan, but they never give us a true representation of future reality except in rare cases. I think chaos theory has much to do with this. That being said I’m not a specialist in either subject. All I see is that the models that we were observing as authoritative in these matters turned out to be incorrect.
Mathematical Engineering models allow us to build reliable structures based on the fact that we can control the unpredictable within an acceptable degree to assure reliability.
Even then we allow an extra factor of safety because we know we can’t predict every event. Still there are engineering failures every year because models are models and reality is reality, And while making a really good model is quite difficult making the perfect model is normally impossible.
Which leads me to what I figure is the main point of my response. The choices I made were voluntary. The practices I supported were also voluntary, not some sort of thing pushed onto people. I guess people either outright rejected the ideas or just were not aware enough so way too many did not take part and the human population has boomed ( A sly reference to Erlich's Population Bomb books)
If you are just throwing out comments about how hard it is to make good predictions, then I understand. I know of chaos theory. I look at it this way. Had some of my predicted outcomes not come to pass this conversation would not be taking place. We would be living in a sustainable manner without a large number of looming crisis events either at our door or just on the horizon. A telling event for me has not been very dramatic but is widespread. We have been using bottled water for some decades now. That water in plastic bottles is commonplace is, to me, a sure sign of the depth of the problems. I admit this was not something I imagined. I did know of potential water issues but was not able to for see the plastic water bottles. I now see folks loading cases of such water when I go to the store. My personal choice is to have a good filter for my tap water and to have water bottles I can wash and reuse.