Global doom and gloom.

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Not the study of population growth mechanics or models, but the study of population control. How do we predict and direct that?

The thing about any modeling of populations or devices or systems is that it is always based on the assumption of everything else being equal or normalized, and that is never what happens.

What happens is a series of unpredictable historical events that drives people in different directions for different reasons, which are totally unconnected to the basic reproductive urges.

Predictive models give us a platform from which to plan, but they never give us a true representation of future reality except in rare cases. I think chaos theory has much to do with this. That being said I’m not a specialist in either subject. All I see is that the models that we were observing as authoritative in these matters turned out to be incorrect.

Mathematical Engineering models allow us to build reliable structures based on the fact that we can control the unpredictable within an acceptable degree to assure reliability.

Even then we allow an extra factor of safety because we know we can’t predict every event. Still there are engineering failures every year because models are models and reality is reality, And while making a really good model is quite difficult making the perfect model is normally impossible.
Hello; Again I do not grasp the point you make exactly. I will make a stab sort of in the dark. First about my decision of decades ago. I did not at the time know for sure the assumptions I was making would come to pass. I figured they would with some confidence but also clearly understood things could go a different way. In fact I did hope to be proven wrong since my concerns would lead to unplesant outcomes. In the fullness of time many of my fears seem to either have been borne out or are seem to be in the early stages of being borne out. I made a decision based on the evidence at the time. Not expecting to save the world but more to not bring a life into a world which appeared to be on a course of significant problems.
Which leads me to what I figure is the main point of my response. The choices I made were voluntary. The practices I supported were also voluntary, not some sort of thing pushed onto people. I guess people either outright rejected the ideas or just were not aware enough so way too many did not take part and the human population has boomed ( A sly reference to Erlich's Population Bomb books)

If you are just throwing out comments about how hard it is to make good predictions, then I understand. I know of chaos theory. I look at it this way. Had some of my predicted outcomes not come to pass this conversation would not be taking place. We would be living in a sustainable manner without a large number of looming crisis events either at our door or just on the horizon. A telling event for me has not been very dramatic but is widespread. We have been using bottled water for some decades now. That water in plastic bottles is commonplace is, to me, a sure sign of the depth of the problems. I admit this was not something I imagined. I did know of potential water issues but was not able to for see the plastic water bottles. I now see folks loading cases of such water when I go to the store. My personal choice is to have a good filter for my tap water and to have water bottles I can wash and reuse.
 
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need their vehicle to make money to pay the past due money. It’s another incentive to not skip child support payments though.
Hello; This makes sense. I suspect the incentive is the reason. For a particular individual it is not productive since that individual cannot make a living and thus cannot make payments. For the greater population of those making support payments the example seems sure to be an incentive. I would not want to lose my ability to drive.
Another pitfall I avoided by being childless. I had two wives and two divorces, but no support payments.
 
you are also on the lucky side of the coin being male and being able to request a vasectomy. You can get one done at any time in your life and no one bats an eye at you. Since I’ve been 16 I’ve been asking dr’s to tie my tubes and not one will even entertain the idea. I believe if drs done these requests more readily there would also be a notable difference in population.
Hello; yes to the no one bats an eye part. No lectures or "are you sure you want to do this" questions. I was not aware of the points you make. I sort of figured the surgery being more complicated for women might be the reason. Thanks for the insight.

When I had my vasectomy I was still married to the first wife. We talked it over and she was onboard. I do not know what she may have done after the split. Lost touch and no incentive to find out.
I told the second wife there would be no children well before we married. Not so sure how that played in terms of the eventual divorce. She did remarry and does have at least one child. Been over ten years since I had any contact so cannot say now.
 
I don't think it's as simple as more children equals more resources used. I would bet that myself, wife and 1 child would use much more resources in our western modern lifestyle than a family of 6 living in a third world country.
We have a fairly large house, 2 cars all the usual gadgets. Unfortunately most food we buy comes in plastic. We try to recycle etc. but who knows what really happens to the stuff once the bin is collected. I try to be "green" as possible as an example to my kid as she will be the next generation but i doubt it's making much difference to the big picture.
Compare our wasteful consumerist western life to a large family living in a slum in the third world and I bet we would be using much more resources per person than they would by a long shot. Honestly, how much food do you waste per year, how many old phones do you have sitting in your underwear drawer? How many useless plastic toys did your kid get for their birthday and did you really need to upgrade your tv last year? Dare I ask how much power to your fishtanks consume?
I'm guilty of all of this so not pointing fingers but I do feel shocked how much we waste and how much needless crap we have. I often wonder what the worker in the Chinese toy factory thinks when they are pumping out thousands of Harry Potter plastic light up magic wands per day and thinking what the hell are people buying these for before going back to their overcrowded tiny apartment.
 
Hello; Again I do not grasp the point you make exactly. . . .If you are just throwing out comments about how hard it is to make good predictions, then I understand. . . .

Population Control requires/is Mind Control, or nowadays maybe Social engineering. It probably has other names.

How do we do that? I mean how do we morally justify government sanctioned mass mind control to (for instance) effect population control?

Not that we don't see it happening (for commercial and political reasons) before our eyes, but the practice assumes some legal apotheosis of those behind the curtain.

"Who will guard those selfsame guards?"
 
The future is bleak, especially in the united states. The inevitable collapse of the dollar and the fecklessness of a government led by a conniving class of elites only concerned for themselves will plunge the country into an even worse situation than it is today. The younger generations, already having less wealth than their parents and grandparents and great grandparents, will be crushed, not that they are not already being so. A country filled with young people with no hope for the future will become a breeding ground for various forms of extremism and violence as we already see many examples of around the world. The risk of a nuclear war is unacceptably high and the systems put in place to reduce the risk have been systematically dismantled year after year, while nations have simultaneously reduced their thresholds for using nuclear weapons. The risk of a Thucydides trap between the worlds declining power and rising power is large and increasing. What little is left of the biosphere is being totally wiped out, which in a worse case scenario could create a massive boom in methane producing bacteria and a permian style extinction event. There is very little to be hopeful for. https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
 
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The future is bleak, especially in the united states. The inevitable collapse of the dollar and the fecklessness of a government led by a conniving class of elites only concerned for themselves will plunge the country into an even worse situation than it is today. The younger generations, already having less wealth than their parents and grandparents and great grandparents, will be crushed, not that they are not already being so. A country filled with young people with no hope for the future will become a breeding ground for various forms of extremism and violence as we already see many examples of around the world. The risk of a nuclear war is unacceptably high and the systems put in place to reduce the risk have been systematically dismantled year after year, while nations have simultaneously reduced their thresholds for using nuclear weapons. The risk of a Thucydides trap between the worlds declining power and rising power is large and increasing. What little is left of the biosphere is being totally wiped out, which in a worse case scenario could create a massive boom in methane producing bacteria and a permian style extinction event. There is very little to be hopeful for. https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

I think you just wrote the intro for a "watchmen" comic.
 
I would bet that myself, wife and 1 child would use much more resources in our western modern lifestyle than a family of 6 living in a third world country.
Hello; This is an old saying I heard some years ago. It went along the lines that if everyone alive on the world at the time lived a lifestyle like the typical American (USA), then we would need five planets the size of the earth to supply the resources.
Yes the billions of very poor have some less of an impact than citizens of more prosperous areas. Wealth in some ways equates to the ability to impact the environment. The poor do not have the money to do much travel in airplanes or to heat and cool McMansions or other such expensive energy consumption.
 
I don't think it's as simple as more children equals more resources used. I would bet that myself, wife and 1 child would use much more resources in our western modern lifestyle than a family of 6 living in a third world country.
We have a fairly large house, 2 cars all the usual gadgets. Unfortunately most food we buy comes in plastic. We try to recycle etc. but who knows what really happens to the stuff once the bin is collected. I try to be "green" as possible as an example to my kid as she will be the next generation but i doubt it's making much difference to the big picture.
Compare our wasteful consumerist western life to a large family living in a slum in the third world and I bet we would be using much more resources per person than they would by a long shot. Honestly, how much food do you waste per year, how many old phones do you have sitting in your underwear drawer? How many useless plastic toys did your kid get for their birthday and did you really need to upgrade your tv last year? Dare I ask how much power to your fishtanks consume?
I'm guilty of all of this so not pointing fingers but I do feel shocked how much we waste and how much needless crap we have. I often wonder what the worker in the Chinese toy factory thinks when they are pumping out thousands of Harry Potter plastic light up magic wands per day and thinking what the hell are people buying these for before going back to their overcrowded tiny apartment.

A little eye opener for you, though i'll throw a disclaimer in and say I can't say if this happens in Oz or not, but in the uk it happens all over.

The general public, from a recycling point of view, has a spectrum as broad as any you'll ever see. Ranging from people who dilligently wash out plastic, glass and tins before placing them just so in the appropriate bin ready for collection. Right through to the lazy lot who just don't give a hoot and throw anything in their bins.

The council dustbin wagons pick it up and go and dump it at a huge central facility where bulldozers and loading shovel diggers load it into bulk tippers. Then it comes to our recycling site.

I tell you. If any of the diligent lot who take time and care to to wash and segregate their waste ready for collection saw what comes to our site they would have heart attacks. It's just a huge dirty pile of stinking fly and rat infested crap. We bulldoze it all into a machine which segregates non ferrous and ferrous tins, glass and plastic, which all should be there. But the efficiency rate and productivity of the machine is way way down on what it should be to achieve targets. This is because of all the paper, cardboard, fabrics, even garden waste that are abundant in the mix, and shouldn't even be there.

I believe Germany, who are one of the world leaders in recycling, realised a long time ago that they're flogging a dead horse. Government targets just cannot be hit and as a result more and more is going back into landfill and incineration. They're going backwards and I think the next couple of decades will see a seismic shift by the rest of the world too.

It's absolutely crazy.
 
Population Control requires/is Mind Control, or nowadays maybe Social engineering. It probably has other names.

How do we do that? I mean how do we morally justify government sanctioned mass mind control to (for instance) effect population control?

Not that we don't see it happening (for commercial and political reasons) before our eyes, but the practice assumes some legal apotheosis of those behind the curtain.

"Who will guard those selfsame guards?"
Hello; Well this clears up where you are coming from at least. I do still disagree. You have equated the things I write to something I did not intend with the addition of the word "control". I never implied the use of mind control or the use of "government sanctioned mass mind control" to effect population size. While you get to have an opinion just as I do, I fear your comments do not reflect what I am writing. Rather you seem to be taking my comments to a place other than where I mean to be.
I will leave it here for the sake of civility.
 
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