Human population numbers questioned

[skjl47]

MSN

Hello; One of my topics of interest from the 1970's has been human population. Probably dates further back to the late 1960's during my quest for an undergrad degree in biology. I still have at least one of the ecology textbooks of the time. I know it was sections concerning population dynamics which sparked the interest.

Anyway the gist of the link seems to be that rural populations have been seriously undercounted. That there may be perhaps a billion or more of an undercount in commonly used data bases.
At least one source referenced is the numbers of displaced people when dams are built. Apparently, there are more registered than thought when the dam projects start.

Of course the notion is challenged.

 

[Ulu]

It appears rural life is more popular than imagined.

You couldn’t get me into a big city without a court summons. I saw too many as a kid.

Some guys I used to follow once predicted a future “village movement” where millions would leave the cities to establish thousands of tiny towns.

 

[jjohnwm]

It seems hard to believe that so many population estimates...over so many years...done by so many researchers...could be so wrong...and all in the same direction, i.e. they were all underestimations. Sounds like yet another example of irresponsible journalism, working hard to keep us all as frightened and nervous as possible. It's getting a bit tiresome. I mean, an overestimation wouldn't be nearly as much of a looming disaster...if nothing else it would mean that we had more time before the hammer falls...so let's not report that!

These people can't even decide which disaster or apocalypse or natural catastrophe is the best one to use for the purpose of keeping everybody terrified. They just keep on rolling new ones out along with the older threats. Will we be wiped out by a tired, dusty old killer asteroid or giant earthquake...everybody likes the classics!...or is it cooler to worry about stuff like violent solar storms wiping out the electrical grid and thrusting us back into the Stone Age? Zombies were in vogue for awhile, and then started to get stale...but then Covid hit and revitalized the whole virus pandemic theme. Today is Saturday; I think that's either Alien Invasion day or Supervolcano day. I know for a fact that the Rise of AI is scheduled for Tuesday, and I really think the Rogue Black Hole and Killer Gamma-Ray Pulsar ideas haven't gotten the airtime they deserve.

I'm especially fond of those ideas that the doomsayers trumpet "This is inevitable; it's just a question of when..." ; then they point out the killer asteroid hitting Earth 65 million years ago and intone "See? SEE???"

I'm glad that Ulu got to comment on this thread before California slides into the Pacific; you're cutting it close there, buddy...

 

[Ulu]

The same guys whom I mentioned previously predicted (after we bought the London bridge and moved it to Lake Havasu) that Americans would buy all of the big monuments. The Eiffel tower, Big Ben, the Taj Majal, the Sphinx . . . all that stuff; then disassemble it and move it all to the Lake Havasu desert.

Or something like that…I’m certain it was all intended as comedy at the time.

 

[Ulu]

….I'm glad that Ulu got to comment on this thread before California slides into the Pacific; you're cutting it close there, buddy...

I’m 71 years old and we’re only moving 2 cm a year. There’s a lot of damn centimeters between me and the ocean buddy.

Actually we’re not moving in the direction of the ocean at all. We’re kind of tied in at the base of Mount Whitney, and it’s a big chunk.

Now if the Sierra Nevada mountains go somewhere suddenly, it’s all over.

The real danger here is that we don’t have the best record of dam safety in California. We don’t live directly below the flood path of any big reservoirs fortunately.

But a whole lot of people do. This is more of a danger than people dropping off into the Pacific overnight.

Meanwhile I feel like I should post up something about the extinction of the delta smelt population.

But who knows? Perhaps it’s just a rumor and they’re not really extinct?

 

[skjl47]

predicted a future “village movement” where millions would leave the cities to establish thousands of tiny towns

Hello; I will try not to go too far into the weeds. For one thing my grasp of the details is some fragmented after 55 years. One fragment which sprang to mind was a waterline/electric power truism. Mainly water line if memory serves. Seems there was a follow up of what happens when a water line was extended from some point A to a point B some good distance away. Initially the pipe would have been intended to get the water to point B only. This happened at a place where I lived in a modified way but that is for later.

What was found was over time is that new connections were added along the route of the water line. No big surprise. Some folks who already lived nearby took advantage of the "city" water. There also were small businesses & mini malls which popped up. I currently live next to HWY 63 in Claiborne County TN. Back in 1963 when I got my drivers license this was a winding two lane road thru sparsely populated rural land.
Now HWY 63 is straightened a lot and is currently becoming a four lane. No longer sparsely populated. Lots of commercial business along the way. Soon after the old 63 was straightened a ten-inch water main was run alongside of the new 63. Point being, best as I can recall, it is the water which encourages development. When I moved back to the area after being gone forty years the changes were clear to see. In fact, the house & land i now own in was a small farm back in 1963. Became a small housing development in the 1970's.
Back from 1963 till I left in 1965 guts who had cars would meet at a small shop in the Cumberland Gap on US Hwy 25E. It was a tourist trap and cheap place to buy tobacco products. There is a limestone cave on one side of that old (now gone road) called Cujo's Cave. That shop would sell tickets for a short tour thru the cave. Tobacco prices were cheap compared to other places. It was located at the nexus of three states with one state having a lower tax on tobacco (VA I think)
Anyway, we would meet at around 1:00 AM at the small store as it stayed open 24 hours. Buy cokes & smokes. Then someone would do the challenge. That being to drive from the store to the city limits of Lafollette TN about 33 miles away. I did not have a car so went for a few scary rides. It was doable because everything shut down well before midnight. At the time it was twisty enough to rival "The tail of The Dragon" (look it up). The near 180-degree curve near the "Bughole" is one of the few remaining tough spots. You have to get off the new road to drive on it, which I do sometimes. Twenty-eight minutes was considered a fast time. But then it was self-timed, so who knows. One fellow wrecked a new 1967 Ford Mustang GT fastback in a corn field. I was not with him. He had to pay for the corn ruined.

Now days you try to get your business done in Lafollette TN before 3:30 PM or after 7:00 pm. 3:30 because of all the school zones & after 7:00 because folks who work in Knoxville TN are coming home to their own housing development. A 60 + mile commute one way for them.

Enough from me.

 

[jjohnwm]

Delta Smelt? Never heard of it. A bit of reading seems to indicate that it's gone from being the most common fish in that delta...to being functionally extinct in the wild, as a result of habitat destruction, environmental degradation, etc. In other words, like everything else the environmentalists preach about...it's my fault, and Ulu's fault, and everybody else's fault, for taking up space and breathing on the planet.

I also did not realize that Striped Bass had been introduced in the area over 100 years ago. Some local fishermen want to blame the collapse of the smelt population on predation by the bass. Odd that it would take this long to happen, but it seems reasonable that predation could easily be at least part of the problem. Those bass were introduced back in a time when the attitude of game management authorities was very similar to the ideas of many cichlid cross-breeders today, i.e. "Hey, let's try this just for gits'n'shiggles. Sounds like fun; what could go wrong?" Zero consideration given to the long-term results of meddling with the natural system.

Personally, I think the smelt were overpopulating back then, and their ever-increasing biomass was overbalancing the California coast at that point, weakening or perhaps even causing the creation of the San Andreas fault. If allowed to go on breeding unchecked, the little buggers might have snapped the coast clean off! Introducing the Stripers may have saved the entire West coast from devastation.

There's a lesson to be learned here. We should be monitoring and considering carefully what other varieties of sea-going vermin need to be exterminated...for the good of the planet!

Maybe sharks? I mean...they eat people! Oh, and whales! It's estimated that a single whale fart releases as much methane as upwards of 10,000 cow farts. We're always being told that cow farts are destroying the ozone layer...or polluting outer space...or something...whatever, they're apparently really bad. So why would we allow gigantic fish...yeah, yeah, I know, but they're close enough...to continue flatulating us into extinction? It's downright undignified!

Common sense, here, people!

 

[skjl47]

like everything else the environmentalists preach about...it's my fault, and Ulu's fault, and everybody else's fault, for taking up space and breathing on the planet.

Hello; Bingo- you state the final determination. At some point the true believer environmentalist has or will have to find a way to spin things such as when bears, cougars (non-human sort) start eating people. Oh Oh, they already have started eating people. Not the "Grizzly man" sort of eating when he took his girlfriend and placed them both in their feeding ground.

Here is where I might insert, if I were sneaky, a pitch for human overpopulation. That we have been forcing wild predators into smaller and smaller corners. But I will not do such a thing.

One of my favored comebacks to cow farts is how the other wild grass grazers seem to get a pass on farts. (methane emissions) I may include the whale emissions from now on.

 

[jjohnwm]

I also wonder...seriously, this time...about how the flatulence of the world population of cattle compares to that of large wild ungulates in days past. Bison, in their once gigantic numbers, grow far larger than cattle and are just as rude. How did their methane production compare to modern day cattle? How about the still-enormous herds of African grazers? Or are they all just "holding it"?

Environmental extremists will undoubtedly work some math magic to "prove" that this is silly, that we're far worse off now. But today, searching the internet can provide "evidence" and "proof" of both sides of any debate. Who to listen to? What to believe?

I think most people tend to latch onto one side or the other of any debate...perhaps on a whim, perhaps after some examination of the evidence...but once they pick their lane they are locked into it, disbelieve any refuting arguments and latch on like grim death to ones that support their chosen position.