@@ Trend of black ray pricing? @@

[cavallino]

hey guys, what's your take?

1) long term average price for a 5" pdr will fall from today's pricing.
- controlled and sustained brazilian exports.
- increasing captive breeding production.
- increased hybridisation of pdr bloodline in captivity will improve production yields and bring down prices. i.e. if a $1k pdr sp looks better than a $10k black diamond, which would you buy rite?

2) long term average price for a 5" pdr will stay more or less at today's prices.
- sporadic and unpredictable brazilian export pipeline.
- low production yields in captive breeding.
- unstable supply pipe line from captive breeders (perhaps a sizable portion of breeders are hobbyists and are therefore incidental breeders, meaning they come and go).

3) long term average price for a 5" pdr will go up from today's prices.
- ultimately, pdrs will become a CITES species, forever halting brazilian exports.
- lack of focused pdr breeding in captivity (unlike large scale commercialised farming of arowana) will mean that the captive pdr population would be unable to sustain itself.

Or maybe there will be a tiering of prices? i.e. very normal or not very nice pdr specimens will fetch lower pricing, and those exceptional looking specimens will have their prices bidded through the roof? I acknowledge price tiering occurs even today, but perhaps this will become even more pronounced going forward?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

 

[crowconor]

very good poll but i really have no idea im very interested to see what everyone will say

 

[ashleysomething]

Well, the price will inevitably stabilize, all outside factors aside. A high price tag will will make bringing more in and/or breeding more pdr's more appealing. This will cause an increase in supply, and the rarity (i.e. price) of the rays will go down. If the price drops too much, then importing / breeding will be less attractive and the price will go up because the supply will be reduced. It's a reverse feedback mechanism.

The market fluctuates, but assuming that the actual structure that is in place doesn't drastically change then the logical end will be a stability in the market. Right now the price is fluctuating a bit high, but the one and only law of finance is "The market will always correct itself."

 

[cavallino]

interesting! so far 3 bears, 2 fence sitters, and no bulls!

anyone else has comments about the landscape to add? I'm sure it'll be interesting.

 

[cavallino]

Right now the price is fluctuating a bit high, but the one and only law of finance is "The market will always correct itself."

well yes, prices are always cyclical and the market will rebalance itself, meaning everything is in a constant flux, so i guess the poll is flawed in that i didn't stipulate a time frame..

let's say, average pricing, in the next 3- 5 years?

 

[JD7.62]

The only thing that will increase prices long term would be CITIES. If the Brazilian exports stay open two or three years in a row, I would imagine a huge price drop. This past ban wasn't the first ban on export Brazil put on its rays and I doubt it will be the last, but like in the past, I'm sure they will open up exports again.

The price of rays will NEVER drop too low that exporting/importing will stop being attractive. Before the recent ban, leos were just $50-75 export price and that is still a VERY high dollar and profitable fish for the exporters.

 

[Big Daves Rays]

Sorry but this is a waste of time. No one can see into the future and we can all haggle over it now and guess what will happen and get peoples hopes up, but we really don't know. I don't think it really contributes much to the hobby and this site. Its like anything else with fluctuating prices. You never know what will happen tomorrow, so why waste time guessing what might happen, and wait to see what really happens.

 

[AU_Arowana-RG]

Predictions, I guess.

Prices may drop, but I doubt that would make captive breeding unattractive. I really think that the rarity and price would be a cause for people to initiate more captive breeding activities. After all, rays are easier to breed than most other ]V[onster Fish.

 

[stingray man]

No one knows a for sure answer, but i would have to say they will probabley stay the same or drop maybe a couple hundred thats it. The reason for this is the comercial breeders aren't going to let the sales price drop all that much, and unless you are a vendor or a breeder it is near impossible to get these rays. I dont think they will ever go up, but the days of $300 leos are gone.

 

[abortedsoul]

The only thing that will increase prices long term would be CITIES. If the Brazilian exports stay open two or three years in a row, I would imagine a huge price drop. This past ban wasn't the first ban on export Brazil put on its rays and I doubt it will be the last, but like in the past, I'm sure they will open up exports again.

The price of rays will NEVER drop too low that exporting/importing will stop being attractive. Before the recent ban, leos were just $50-75 export price and that is still a VERY high dollar and profitable fish for the exporters.

Good point- as an external factor, CITES definitely is the biggest influence. You have to admit, however, that $1000+ is much more attractive than $50.