How has the coronavirus affected your personal life?

[dogofwar]

Actually, in their model, the team at University of Washington addressed many of the "drivers of all-cause mortality" that you brought up.

This echoes the numerous other studies that have found that the "official" counts of COVID death are under-counts.

From the study:

Our approach to estimating the excess COVID-19 death rate is based on measurement of the excess death rate during the pandemic week by week compared to what would have been expected based on past trends and seasonality. However, the total excess death rate does not equal the excess COVID-19 death rate. Excess mortality is influenced by six drivers of all-cause mortality that relate to the pandemic and the social distancing mandates that came with the pandemic. These six drivers are: a) the excess COVID-19 death rate, that is, all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection; b) the increase in mortality due to needed health care being delayed or deferred during the pandemic; c) the increase in mortality due to increases in mental health disorders including depression, increased alcohol use, and increased opioid use; d) the reduction in mortality due to decreases in injuries because of general reductions in mobility associated with social distancing mandates; e) the reductions in mortality due to reduced transmission of other viruses, most notably influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and measles; and f) the reductions in mortality due to some chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease, that occur when frail individuals who would have died from these conditions died earlier from COVID-19 instead. To correctly estimate the excess COVID-19 mortality, we need to take into account all six of these drivers of change in mortality that have happened since the onset of the pandemic.

Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate. In other words, we estimate excess mortality in all locations with sufficient data. Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate the fraction of excess mortality that is from excess COVID-19 deaths as opposed to the five other drivers that influence excess mortality. Third, we build a statistical model that predicts the ratio of excess COVID-19 deaths to reported COVID-19 deaths based on covariates and spatial effects. Fourth, we use this statistical relationship to predict the ratio of excess to reported COVID-19 deaths in places without data on excess COVID-19 deaths and then multiply the reported COVID-19 deaths by this ratio to generate estimates of excess COVID-19 deaths for all locations. More details on each of these analytical steps are presented below.

Hello; This seems wrong on the face of it. I get the concept. Say the average/normal number of deaths was 1,000,000 for a time period and during a matching time period the number of deaths was 1,500,000. They want to call dibs on the excess deaths and count them in the tally of their choice.

However there was much more than just the virus going on during that time frame. There were lots of home improvement jobs going on as is reflected in lumber prices. I am just getting two fingers back into action due to mishaps. I am betting some folks may have died doing risky jobs around the house.

Then there are the folks who had medical issues and skipped appointments and procedures during the pandemic. Likely some number of them died than may have lived if things had been normal.

I have heard about suicide numbers going up during the lockdowns. In a similar vein there were more domestic abuse cases reported i think. In my area there have been some things involving small children.

I also hear about about more traffic accidents.

I think we had a side discussion on the dying with Covid19 vs. dying from covid19 months ago. If I have a mild case of covid19 and fall off a ladder doing a home improvement job, then how will I be counted. I had covid19 but was feeling good enough to do some work. My guess is I will be counted as a covid19 death. Same as if I am in a car wreck and so on.


Hello; I have read the very same thing. This was walked back a bit in the media for a time. There were articles claiming the deaths will be investigated at some future time and revised. I do not know how that went as it is not in the news any more.

 

[skjl47]

Actually, in their model, the team at University of Washington addressed many of the "drivers of all-cause mortality" that you brought up.

This echoes the numerous other studies that have found that the "official" counts of COVID death are under-counts.

From the study:

Our approach to estimating the excess COVID-19 death rate is based on measurement of the excess death rate during the pandemic week by week compared to what would have been expected based on past trends and seasonality. However, the total excess death rate does not equal the excess COVID-19 death rate. Excess mortality is influenced by six drivers of all-cause mortality that relate to the pandemic and the social distancing mandates that came with the pandemic. These six drivers are: a) the excess COVID-19 death rate, that is, all deaths directly related to COVID-19 infection; b) the increase in mortality due to needed health care being delayed or deferred during the pandemic; c) the increase in mortality due to increases in mental health disorders including depression, increased alcohol use, and increased opioid use; d) the reduction in mortality due to decreases in injuries because of general reductions in mobility associated with social distancing mandates; e) the reductions in mortality due to reduced transmission of other viruses, most notably influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and measles; and f) the reductions in mortality due to some chronic conditions, such as cardiovascular disease and chronic respiratory disease, that occur when frail individuals who would have died from these conditions died earlier from COVID-19 instead. To correctly estimate the excess COVID-19 mortality, we need to take into account all six of these drivers of change in mortality that have happened since the onset of the pandemic.

Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate. In other words, we estimate excess mortality in all locations with sufficient data. Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate the fraction of excess mortality that is from excess COVID-19 deaths as opposed to the five other drivers that influence excess mortality. Third, we build a statistical model that predicts the ratio of excess COVID-19 deaths to reported COVID-19 deaths based on covariates and spatial effects. Fourth, we use this statistical relationship to predict the ratio of excess to reported COVID-19 deaths in places without data on excess COVID-19 deaths and then multiply the reported COVID-19 deaths by this ratio to generate estimates of excess COVID-19 deaths for all locations. More details on each of these analytical steps are presented below.

Hello; Can you provide a link so I can read the whole study?

 

[dogofwar]

Hello; Can you provide a link so I can read the whole study?

Here you go (from the prior post): http://www.healthdata.org/special-a...covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths

 

[TwoHedWlf]

The analysis comes from researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, who looked at excess mortality from March 2020 through May 3, 2021, compared it with what would be expected in a typical nonpandemic year, then adjusted those figures to account for a handful of other pandemic-related factors.

Using that method, Covid here saved something like 10 times as many lives as it killed.

 

[jjohnwm]

I have an observation, made without benefit of interlocking estimates, statistical models or predictive algorithms but merely a personal observation.

I'm semi-retired but work usually about half of each year, always at remote industrial construction sites in northern Canada. A typical "wrap" will consist of three weeks at work, one week back home. Accommodations on site consist of large camps, which are essentially small self-contained villages that provide just enough comfort to prevent the workers from going insane and killing each other.

Like most such camps, the one at which I have spent portions of the past six years is a disturbingly unsanitary situation populated by a large number of disturbingly unsanitary people. Typically, a walk down the central corridor at camp to visit the dining hall, gym, rec center or simply to exit the building and go to work is a gauntlet of coughing, sneezing people with little concept of such civilized niceties as personal hygiene. Going literally anywhere entails constantly handling doorknobs and latches that are touched by hundreds or thousands of people daily. It's tough to spend time in an environment like this without getting sick.

But then...Covid happened. Starting early last year, the company had to deal with the increasingly stringent regulations imposed by the provincial government in order to be allowed to remain open. Doors that required manual opening by every single person passing through them are now held open by mag-locks, allowing free passage without constant contact. Self-serve portions of the cafeteria are gone, replaced by servers behind acrylic panels assembling your selected foods and carefully handing them to you. Masks are mandatory everywhere other than actually within one's 8x10 room. Recreational facilities are either closed entirely (billiards, video arcade, theater) or heavily limited in terms of occupancy (gym, running track). All meals are "to-go" and eaten back in one's room. All camp staff and residents are tested for Covid at least 3 times monthly; positive or presumptive positive test results land the unfortunate victim in an isolation dorm, awaiting either a follow-up negative or a quick flight back to "the world". The last positive case we had (a camp staff worker who lived in a nearby town) was about 2 months ago; none before that since at least before Christmas.

And...surprise, surprise!...no one gets sick anymore. Coughs and sneezes are almost never heard. The medical services personnel, by their own admission, have almost nothing to do. An individual walking down the hall unmasked is quickly accosted by security staff and "educated". I have never experienced a healthier, more sanitary camp than this one now is; all it took was a global pandemic to get people to wash their hands and cover their coughs.

 

[Ulu]

Dog, all you’re telling me is it a bunch of people are playing with a bunch of numbers in order to scare everybody to do what they wanted.

Whether or not what they wanted people to do is correct, this method of going about it cast an impermeable shadow over the whole business. There is under 50% trust among the public.

I think our government has flubbed this up from the beginning to end, And they’re trying to create cover with scary numbers.

Of course we’ve got excess comorbidity because there’s a disease going around. This happens with every disease. Weak people are going to get it worse.

But regarding the numbers being published around, the scaremongers are taking every chance to inflate them. Are you?

 

[Ulu]

. . . just enough comfort to prevent the workers from going insane and killing each other. . . . all it took was a global pandemic to get people to wash their hands and cover their coughs.

Every year, before flu season, at every remote military of post where we were stationed, there was a health campaign to get people to sanitize & improve hygiene. If you’re in the military and you put your own health at risk you are guilty & will be reprimanded. Sometimes people would be persuaded to hide their health condition where it might be spread to the squad. That would get you a very serious reprimand and probably more.

I live in a huge huge county which has a portion of very civilized suburban people, and a portion of rough farmworkers living in substandard conditions.

In between here and there you have every various situation.

What I hear is that the people who live in bad conditions and cannot or do not practice good hygiene are the lions share of those winding up in the hospital or the morgue.

 

[Jexnell]

Thanks to this ****ed off real estate market due to landlords not getting paid for a year they decided to jack up the rent from 925 to 1400. That has basically priced me out of housing. So now I need to get a car to live in for the amout of time it takes the homeless programs to cut thru all the red tape and actually help me a twice over cancer survivor on disability get into affordable housing.

If anyone wants help

Donate to Help Sean get a car to live in, organized by Sean Talkington

Hi my name is Sean. I am raising money for a vehicle that me and Phoenix can temporaril… Sean Talkington needs your support for Help Sean get a car to live in

gofund.me

 

[dogofwar]

During a pandemic that's already killed hundreds of thousands in the US and 4 million globally, I'm not sure what the appropriate response is regarding a vaccine that can basically keep people from dying or being hospitalized from the pandemic than "please voluntarily take it"... at lots of places near you at which we've made it freely available?!

Approximately 6/10 people approve of the current response strategy, with about 3/10 disapproving, I'd assume primarily along partisan lines. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/coronavirus-polls/

We haven't even begun to grapple with how we "flubbed" this pandemic from the start, including intentionally "playing it down" when we knew it was deadly (and airborne). There have been hundreds of thousands of needless US deaths, untold suffering, economic loss and loss of trust arising from this "original sin".

Dog, all you’re telling me is it a bunch of people are playing with a bunch of numbers in order to scare everybody to do what they wanted.

Whether or not what they wanted people to do is correct, this method of going about it cast an impermeable shadow over the whole business. There is under 50% trust among the public.

I think our government has flubbed this up from the beginning to end, And they’re trying to create cover with scary numbers.

Of course we’ve got excess comorbidity because there’s a disease going around. This happens with every disease. Weak people are going to get it worse.

But regarding the numbers being published around, the scaremongers are taking every chance to inflate them. Are you?

 

[skjl47]

Could Pfizer and Moderna Be in Trouble After the Latest COVID Vaccine Findings? (msn.com)

Hello; This is a follow the money link. The trouble being that the vaccines may be good for years and the companies will not get to sell a second, third or more series of shots. Good for me as i had the moderna.