My prediction is that the USA will strike trade deals with Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia (sources for a lot of manufacturing) that will (continue) to provide cheaper equipment for the fish hobby in the USA. My guess is there will be about a year of disruption as supply chains from China to the USA get unwound and replaced with those from the other SEAsian countries. Where it gets interesting is determining who will own the manufacturing in these SEAsian countries. Will the USA accept Chinese owned manufacturing just moving across the border from China to Vietnam to get around the tariffs on China? A lot of such manufacturing has already moved to Vietnam from China over the last few years for just that reason. I'm sure the trade deals to come between the USA and various countries will be very complicated. In a "worst case" scenario and tariffs stay in place against all Asian manufacturing, then I'd guess we are looking at a bit longer period of time of disruption as people set up manufacturing in the USA to meet demand. Aside from reef keeping, our hobby is not really that high tech - mechanical pumps, air pumps, LED lights, heaters, glass and acrylic - it's not rocket science. As a case study, think of Aquarium Coop. I would bet a dollar that the owner(s) are already looking to manufacture their product lines in the USA. I see a lot of room for other entrepreneurs to do the same.
Tariffs, trade wars, and tropical fish
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Yes true. “Made in” can simply imply “assembled in”. I remember in the 90’s in Australia there being a whole slew of new legislation passed as to what was and wasn’t legal in terms of the labeling goods. This was to ensure that consumers who wanted to support Australian made products weren’t being deceived by confusing marketing terminology.
My point was, that one of big motivators in national production is the employment those companies provide to local nationals. This is part of the overall goal in national economic stability.
I wonder if companies operating onshore get some kind of tariff exemption on raw materials sourced offshore, since they employ people from their home nation? Kind of like employers offering their employees a “staff discount” on whatever goods or service the business supplies
Hello; Perhaps the modifier "almost everything" is a bit extreme in terms of volume. The USA has many raw materials. Outside of some specific categories for example such as perhaps "rare earths" used in Li-ion batteries or palladium used in catalytic converters we have raw materials. I do not think a lack of raw materials nor a lack of energy sources to operate manufacturing plants was the reason for the loss of manufacturing.
My take has been there were economic forces at play. Some beyond tariffs to be sure such as laxer environmental standards and enforcements. Also, the ability to force workers to work at near slave wages in some places was and still is a factor. However, today's discussion is tariffs.
For a long time, perhaps decades, our past leaders have had very low tariffs compared to the countries we traded with. Such was the status quo and is the crux of the matter at hand. There are at least two sides of the story for consumers. One side is to get consumer products at a good price. Ideally a decent quality product for a cheap price. But the other side of that coin is for the consumer to have an income which allows him/her to afford to buy products.
That second side is the location where raw materials are actually changed into finished products makes a difference. A big difference between a finished product shipped into a country for sale and that finished product resulting from a countries workers manipulation of raw materials in country.
I might buy a shipload of a special quartz sand shipped into my country from overseas if i owned a business and then melt and form the sand into glass. Such a scenario is better for local workers and the local economy. Better than buying the glass form overseas in that sense. Also, if that special glass has relevance to national security or public health such is better for us all. We got a taste of what not making our own medical PPE in country can mean just a few years ago.
Back more towards the point. tariffs of 2% on the USA side compared to 263% Canadian tariff on chicken is a prime example of unfair trade balance.
How long does it take to set up a manufacturing facility in the USA? I’d bet it’s longer than this current administrations term of office. With a devastated economy and rising cost of living the tariffs will just be wiped out by the inevitable opposition win next election. Such an easy campaign target to run on.
I’d wager most companies would just ride this out and not bother setting up hugely expensive factories with high labour costs to just be outcompeted again in 4 years before they see a profit.
I’d wager most companies would just ride this out and not bother setting up hugely expensive factories with high labour costs to just be outcompeted again in 4 years before they see a profit.
The amount of people talking about tariffs and the economy: 7 billionish
The amount of people who KNOW what they are talking about and whos opinions have any merit: Like 4
The amount of people who KNOW what they are talking about and whos opinions have any merit: Like 4
RyanScanner
Ryan these are the exact reasons the democrats lost this election. A devastated economy and the highest rate of inflation in 50 years. In Kamala’s campaign she said she’d do nothing differently, and the American people voted against it in the clearest campaign win in a long long time. DJT won the popular vote and the electoral college vote. I’m not saying I like him, just citing some facts.
I can’t vote as I am mot a citizen, but many of the democrats that voted red did so simply for change, not because they like the man.
Whether you or i agree or disagree is irrelevant, but living here there has already been a significant reduction in petrol (gas) prices, home interest rates have dropped over a full percent, and inflation has stalled and will likely trend down in the near future. All of these things are good for all American people.
And that excludes Trump lol, 1 knob jockey fvcks with everyone in the worlds lives for his own domestic politics.
The thing is I didn’t care about anything American until it affect me literally on the other side of the world.
Ryan these are the exact reasons the democrats lost this election. A devastated economy and the highest rate of inflation in 50 years. In Kamala’s campaign she said she’d do nothing differently, and the American people voted against it in the clearest campaign win in a long long time. DJT won the popular vote and the electoral college vote. I’m not saying I like him, just citing some facts.
I can’t vote as I am mot a citizen, but many of the democrats that voted red did so simply for change, not because they like the man.
Whether you or i agree or disagree is irrelevant, but living here there has already been a significant reduction in petrol (gas) prices, home interest rates have dropped over a full percent, and inflation has stalled and will likely trend down in the near future. All of these things are good for all American people.
Wasn’t the inflation caused by COVID subsidies. Flipping the table over when you are loosing the monopoly game doesn’t automatically make you a winner.
The inflation mostly came from the government’s $5 trillion in COVID and post-COVID deficits. The government essentially sent people $5 trillion with no plans to ever pay the money back. People tried to spend it, driving up prices yet wages stayed the same relatively in comparison.
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