Ebola round 2

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Hello: Yes. I continue to push mow my lawn. Ten years ago when I was 62 and bought my first home I could mow the lawn in two sessions, sometimes one. Last year I was reduced to as many as five or six sessions due to a foot tendon injury. I am doing better so far this year. My friends keep pushing me to get a rider mower. But having seen the decline of too many folks who stopped being active I intend to keep at it as much as possible. I am already part of the more vulnerable group on two fronts, age and blood pressure. I try to stay fit so I do not become even more vulnerable. (more co-morbidities)
I get some of us are more vulnerable thru no fault of our own while others work at degrading their health with bad habits. Either way nature does not care and will weed us out. High population densities combined with quick and easy travel by massive numbers of folks around the world set the stage.

I also see the dilemma for health care workers. There have been reports of some staying away from contact with their families as a precaution. A video made the news of a health care worker visiting his child thru a glass door because he was concerned about physical contact. Sometimes we get dealt a bad hand and have make the best of it.
I saw on the news here in the USA where some old folks homes had the staff just not show up for work due to their fears. I get that nursing home staff do not make big money and are taking care of others folks loved ones. But other health care folks had to go in an evacuate the residents.

I am being forced to do things I would not otherwise do...such as waiting in a bank line outside to withdraw funds for one month :( The help has to be paid, and writing checks forces them to go to the bank (unless they have a mobile App)...Seven cords of seasoned hardwoods is not cheap. I laundered money....hot soapy water with lots of bleach...then ironed each bill..ugh... to reduce the likelihood of any one handling the money picking up a contagion.


On another note, getting old is a PITA, but beats the alternative. I had a disastrous fall last year.
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Two surgeries done and need more surgery...developed complex regional pain syndrome and have a lot of deficits. Still have therapy once a week..3 hr round trip drive :( My therapy goal is to regain enough function and strength to be able to wake surf this summer. ?????? will we be able to be on the lake this summer???? At 71, I'm running out of time to play.... Will this thing be over in 2 1/2 months?

Oh yeah, I wore a mask at therapy, and the therapist wore mask and gloves. Seriously, we were both at risk.
 
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4/12/2020 Hello; Let’s pretend I am confused. Back when the covid19 shutdowns and restrictions began there was a very scary prediction from the WHO (World Health Organization I believe) for a potential of 2,200,000 deaths in the USA alone if the virus was allowed to run the natural course. Maybe Half that number with mitigations such as social distancing, closing schools and non-essential businesses and so on.

Also understood back then even with these restrictions the total number becoming infected would eventually be nearly the same overall, just that it would spread out the rate of infections (flatten the curve) so that the medical capacity would not be overwhelmed with a sudden flood of very sick people. To prevent there being too many very sick at one time and not enough life supporting equipment to go around. By thus flattening the curve those of us who avoided being ill for a while should have enough medical support latter on when we might need it.

Well the curve is indeed flattened. There is an excess of available equipment currently. Even heard today some health care workers are being furloughed due to the ban on elective surgeries. The industry of the USA and the world is ramped up so that all the things needed are in the process of being made. Some arrival of new made materials already with more on the way. The plan seems to be working. (Note- This better outcome appears to have resulted from more than just the restrictions, shutdowns and social distancing.) (Mitigating factors in play beyond the scope of suggestions from the infectious disease experts and indeed apparently in some cases in spite of them.)

I figure to eventually become infected. Might have been already along with so many others who did not have symptoms. I will continue to be careful but just as many health care workers, I will be exposed even with being careful. I hope to be among the 80 to 90% plus who do not need a hospital bed, but if I do it seems there will be enough equipment available. Of course for a few of us even a bed and equipment will not be enough to save us. The virus hits some harder than others.

Been hearing of the potential to create a vaccine in a record breaking time of maybe eighteen months. This does not seem realistic. In fact, in an interview a knowledgeable fellow suggested three to five years being the more expected time frame. Even 18 months is long enough for many of us to be exposed.

There is herd immunity. Herd immunity is when at least 60 to 80% of a population has immunity from having had the infection and being a survivor. The not yet infected just do not have so much chance of running into an actively infected person at that point. To get to this point plenty of us will have to be infected and with luck survive. Seems the only way currently to have herd immunity is for most to be infected and survive. Later if a vaccine is developed that can add to herd immunity.

The thing I pretend to be confused about is why the “experts” seem to be now talking about a much longer time for the shutdown of the economy, shelter in place and so on. I get that if you hide without contact you likely will not be infected. But sometime we will have to come out of our hidey holes. The virus will still be around to infect us then it appears. Even if they do make a vaccine I do not think we can hide for even the best case of 18 months.

If a long term shutdown had no bad outcomes such a long shutdown would make sense. However, there are already some bad outcomes from the shutdown with more developing day by day. An example is the food production process. Currently farmers are plowing under crops, dumping milk and allowing food stuffs to rot in place. This is for the current seasons food stuffs which were ready to harvest when the shutdown hit. Next seasons crops have to be gotten ready now or very soon or another crop will be lost. We are eating from food stuffs already harvested and processed in past seasons with the exception of fresh foods. This to me is just one example of potential economic problems of an extended shutdown. I declined to use other examples because I do not wish to be accused of placing the economy over lives.

Do I place economy over lives? No. If the situation could be such that we can have the economy be sound and also not risk lives, then I am for it. However, the evidence mounts there will be consequences from the shutdown already and even more dire consequences to come. Can I clearly support such a claim? No not exactly, it is the way I see it however. Write me off as an alarmist if you wish.

Let me add something I am not going to pretend to be confused about. The numbers of potential deaths in the USA are now very much lower than the predicted 2,200,000 without mitigations or the 1,100,000 with mitigations. Around 60,000 the last I saw. 60,000 is a lot to be sure, but there are many things which kill similar numbers every year in the USA and have for years. We have not shut down everything for them. I get how early on the fear of losing 2,200,000 lives was ample justification for the shutdowns. I do not now see a similar justification for a continued lengthy shutdown. I begin to suspect the “experts” have a too narrow view and only see the problems from the covid19 infection perspective.

The evidence is mounting most people do not get very sick. Last thing heard is perhaps over 50% of the infected do not have symptoms. Of those who do have symptoms many are sick for sure but recover at home. It seems a smaller and smaller percentage wind up in a hospital and a decent number of those recover. I guess the fear we all share is going in we do not know which group we will fall into.

There now exist some decent treatments and some possible treatments coming not known when this pandemic started. Blood plasma transfusions from survivors do work for the very ill. A lupus /malaria drug holds promise. There are several other things being tested. We have enough beds available. Might even be that keep your vitamin D up is a way to help if you get infected.
 
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Eric Nepute, a chiropractor, has a video on FB that went viral. Video was pulled from Youtube, and there are rebuttals to what he says. Basically he touts quinine and zinc. I don't see where he claims that it will prevent COVID-19 infection. After watching his video, I was ready to go buy Schwepps Tonic Water, except I'm not shopping right now. You can find his video still on FB.

 
Eric Nepute, a chiropractor, has a video on FB that went viral. Video was pulled from Youtube, and there are rebuttals to what he says. Basically he touts quinine and zinc. I don't see where he claims that it will prevent COVID-19 infection. After watching his video, I was ready to go buy Schwepps Tonic Water, except I'm not shopping right now. You can find his video still on FB.

Hello; There may be many things touted as cures or at least being helpful. My problem will be how to know which, if any, are worth trying. Some will depend on how sick I happen to be. What I have heard is once we are on one of the machines to help us breath, then we are in trouble. (Note- Not talking about getting extra oxygen) From what is reported being put on a machine is about as serious as it gets. I also think many on the machines for over two or three weeks do not make it. If I get this virus and they tell me it is time to be put on a machine then I will ask for most any treatment even if very risky .

Some things such as the quinine meds used for malaria/lupus have been around for decades and are well understood. I would take them with a doctors supervision. The side effects are well known. I think if you tested positive and are having some lung problems then it seems a decent option. Not clear about the use if just tested positive and are breathing well.
The way it is described is the virus takes over lung cells and makes them reproduce more virus. The lung cells rupture expelling huge numbers of new virus. The cells remains become debris. The body sends in defensive bodies to try to deal with the infection in a general way. Apparently this results in a cascade of events with a too strong immune system response. The lungs get too loaded with immune system, damaged cell and virus debris. I am not clear on this but perhaps the quinine may help by suppressing the immune systems overresponse.

Vitamin D is something long recognized as often being deficient in many people. For older folks it is often recommended that we take supplements. I do. We also get D from sunlight on our skin. Taking a D vitamin sees a good idea in general. I have a yard and am out when I can be now. Those inside with no outdoor option might consider taking some.

We also may get some protection as the dryer winter type air is replaced with higher humidity air. The mucus lining should not dry out so much and leave unprotected areas in our nasal linings. Sometimes in winter the dry air causes my nose and sinus linings do crack and bleed a little. I have long figured the dry winter air along with being indoors with more people is part of why colds and flu are sort of seasonal.

There was a story of a man getting some sort of quinine pills from an aquarium shop and taking them. He died. A very stupid move. So I will be a bit careful before taking some things.
 
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It's way worse than Ebola, I think
Hello; I guess much depends on which aspect of the two diseases being considered. Ebola is a much more deadly disease in terms of fatality rates. From 60 to 90% of those infected do die is my understanding. Ebola has, so far, had a much smaller global impact for a couple of reasons. First one being it is much harder to transmit from person to person. Direct contact with an infected persons body fluids needed if I recall. Ebola also has a shorter incubation period I think so the symptoms show up sooner. These two things have allowed outbreaks to, so far, be contained pretty much.

Covid19 Has a much lower fatality rate by far. I suspect this will be well under 2% and am thinking possibly only a fraction of one percent. The things allowing Covid19 to become a pandemic are the apparent ease of transmission and that it can take many days for symptoms to appear. Indeed for maybe 50% of the infected there are no symptoms.

Lately one of my early guesses appears to be confirmed. That being the covid19 virus is aerosol. Early on the "experts" were guessing it was only spread on tiny droplets of a cough or sneeze. That these droplets were heavy enough to fall out of the air in six to ten feet. Over the weekend I have seen announcements stating it is aerosol and can linger in the air for three hours. This is significant.
To me aerosol is illustrated by the vapor cloud we see when we exhale into cold winter air. The warm moist breath hits cold air and we can see our breath. Assuming these TV announcements are true an infected person will be shedding virus in a cloud by simply breathing. Say I am in a store where an infected person was an hour of more earlier. My take is the virus can still be floating about. This gets into what I think might be termed the virus load.

If memory serves some of how sick a person gets may depend on how much virus you pick up. Say you are walking around a store and do breath in some virus laden air. Here is my unsupported guesswork again. If I walked in an area an hour after an infected person I might breath in X amount of virus. If I were walking six feet behind an infected person I could be breathing in maybe 1000X amount of virus.

Another of my unsupported guess being if getting an X amount of virus then only a few of my respiratory tract cells will be invaded. Say 10 cells. The virus takes over those cells, makes many copies. The body starts the series of events which lead to antibody production. My possibly flawed thinking being while it takes a while for the body to make enough antibodies to be effective, that with so few virus at the start the antibodies are in place before a huge number of other cells are ruptured.
If you get 1000X amount at the start then way many more body cells are damaged before the immune system makes enough antibodies to make a difference. You likely get much sicker. A farfetched notion perhaps. Any way I now not only stay many feet away from others when out , I also try to not walk behind them.

Give me a choice I will pick covid19 over Ebola every time. Much better chance of survival.
 
Lately one of my early guesses appears to be confirmed. That being the covid19 virus is aerosol. Early on the "experts" were guessing it was only spread on tiny droplets of a cough or sneeze. That these droplets were heavy enough to fall out of the air in six to ten feet. Over the weekend I have seen announcements stating it is aerosol and can linger in the air for three hours. This is significant.
Hello; Not sure but it may be that the public service ads I saw a few days ago have been pulled. I have not been seeing them anymore, at least the ones saying covid19 is aerosol and hangs in the air for up to three hours. Also not sure if those ads were an error about the aerosol bit. I do hope so. It is not like the CDC has not been making errors. I do hope the aerosol transmission is not correct since that will make protecting ourselves very difficult.
I went to a CDC site a few minutes ago and it was saying transmission by droplets. This we have a chance of dealing with.
 
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