4-28-2020 We ae deep enough into the pandemic so that some strange, to me, viewpoints have become solidified on a few fronts. Unfortunately, I listen to too much TV talk. Not sure which is the worst. I guess maybe the Washington Journal call in portions have the most misinformation. However, the regular news programs are often not far behind. Seems pretty clear some folks have missed a few important points.
For one is the notion if we shut things down long enough then we can get the new infection numbers down to zero. Perhaps zero for a few days but soon infections will start again. I was talking to a friend last night about his angel fish. Some months ago I gave him some of the fry I raised from eggs. Those fry are matured and one pair have mated and laid eggs. After some discussion on what he can do with the eggs we talked about the covid19 virus.
His wife is a top nurse and she wants the shutdown to continue at least until next September or October. There are at least two and perhaps more than two problems with that. The more important, to me, is that we simply cannot tolerate such a long shutdown. The damage and loss of life just from the shutdown alone very likely will be worse than the virus. But I do not wish to get into that right now.
The next issue seems apparent. Even if we do shut down for a much longer time the virus will still be around in September or October. Those of us who successfully manage to hide for such a time will remain vulnerable to the infection when we come out at that time. Hiding does not give any form of immunity. Waiting that long can just delay the next round of infections. It will not stop the risk of infections.
The early purpose of the shutdowns was to “flatten the curve” of infections so as to not have more badly sick than there are beds and equipment. That has indeed worked. The medical side is in much better shape and has excess capacity. Those of us who get infected now have a bed to be in and equipment to be treated with. There are some medications and more understanding available to help support our immune systems while our bodies fight off the virus. There is not however any sort of cure yet. Those who get hit hardest by the infection still can only rely on our bodies ability to fight off the disease. The machines and medications can help the body fight if you can get a bed.
The “flatten the curve” deal was not supposed to mean the viral infections could be stopped. Just to spread out the rate of infections. I think Sweden may have made the better choice. It is my understanding they did not shut down the way many other countries have. They may and probably will have a slightly higher death rate early in the pandemic but will avoid the second or third waves which we are very likely to have. They have had adequate hospital space so far is my understanding. We in the USA will catch up in terms of the death rate in a next wave when we come out of hiding is the thinking. They will be well on the way to herd immunity and very likely will not have damaged their economy and food production capacity.
Of course there can be game changers if we get very lucky. Some medication or treatment might be had soon that fixes everything. So far that is many months away going by past traditional cures such as a vaccine. Yes, some vaccine trials are ongoing now but are not proven and will not be very soon. Add to that even when one is proven there will be a time for the production to be ramped up. I think the plan is to start the production earlier than normal on the vaccine types that show promise. I think that is where the 18-month hope lies. A fingers crossed hope for the best sort of thing. A more normal time frame is three to five years and sometimes a vaccine just cannot be had. So we can hope for a game changer but my guess is we have to deal with the way things are.
There continues to be a bright side from the data. There finally is some serum antibody testing going on. Not yet much in the way of significant randomized pattern testing but the early results give me some hope. Yesterday (Monday 4/27/2020) it was reported from testing in NY that up to ten times more people likely have already had and recovered from the virus than previously thought. I hope this bears out to be true. Such an outcome will be good in a couple of ways. Mostly it can mean the virus is much less deadly that thought before. A very large number of people having been infected and survived already. This may put us much closer to the needed herd immunity. This also makes opening up the cities and states much less risky for the majority of people. Yes, old guys such as myself are at higher risk and I will try to be careful. For the greater majority the disease currently is not much of a danger seems to be the case.
So many TV talking heads still are going on and on about tests for the active virus infections. I get there is some benefit for a few people. Specifically, for those showing symptoms and front line health care folks. The antibody test is the one which will make the difference. Antibody tests can give the numbers of those who have already had and survived the current strain of the virus. (I hope to be one) That test properly administered should tell us where we stand. I hope they get to this soon.
For one is the notion if we shut things down long enough then we can get the new infection numbers down to zero. Perhaps zero for a few days but soon infections will start again. I was talking to a friend last night about his angel fish. Some months ago I gave him some of the fry I raised from eggs. Those fry are matured and one pair have mated and laid eggs. After some discussion on what he can do with the eggs we talked about the covid19 virus.
His wife is a top nurse and she wants the shutdown to continue at least until next September or October. There are at least two and perhaps more than two problems with that. The more important, to me, is that we simply cannot tolerate such a long shutdown. The damage and loss of life just from the shutdown alone very likely will be worse than the virus. But I do not wish to get into that right now.
The next issue seems apparent. Even if we do shut down for a much longer time the virus will still be around in September or October. Those of us who successfully manage to hide for such a time will remain vulnerable to the infection when we come out at that time. Hiding does not give any form of immunity. Waiting that long can just delay the next round of infections. It will not stop the risk of infections.
The early purpose of the shutdowns was to “flatten the curve” of infections so as to not have more badly sick than there are beds and equipment. That has indeed worked. The medical side is in much better shape and has excess capacity. Those of us who get infected now have a bed to be in and equipment to be treated with. There are some medications and more understanding available to help support our immune systems while our bodies fight off the virus. There is not however any sort of cure yet. Those who get hit hardest by the infection still can only rely on our bodies ability to fight off the disease. The machines and medications can help the body fight if you can get a bed.
The “flatten the curve” deal was not supposed to mean the viral infections could be stopped. Just to spread out the rate of infections. I think Sweden may have made the better choice. It is my understanding they did not shut down the way many other countries have. They may and probably will have a slightly higher death rate early in the pandemic but will avoid the second or third waves which we are very likely to have. They have had adequate hospital space so far is my understanding. We in the USA will catch up in terms of the death rate in a next wave when we come out of hiding is the thinking. They will be well on the way to herd immunity and very likely will not have damaged their economy and food production capacity.
Of course there can be game changers if we get very lucky. Some medication or treatment might be had soon that fixes everything. So far that is many months away going by past traditional cures such as a vaccine. Yes, some vaccine trials are ongoing now but are not proven and will not be very soon. Add to that even when one is proven there will be a time for the production to be ramped up. I think the plan is to start the production earlier than normal on the vaccine types that show promise. I think that is where the 18-month hope lies. A fingers crossed hope for the best sort of thing. A more normal time frame is three to five years and sometimes a vaccine just cannot be had. So we can hope for a game changer but my guess is we have to deal with the way things are.
There continues to be a bright side from the data. There finally is some serum antibody testing going on. Not yet much in the way of significant randomized pattern testing but the early results give me some hope. Yesterday (Monday 4/27/2020) it was reported from testing in NY that up to ten times more people likely have already had and recovered from the virus than previously thought. I hope this bears out to be true. Such an outcome will be good in a couple of ways. Mostly it can mean the virus is much less deadly that thought before. A very large number of people having been infected and survived already. This may put us much closer to the needed herd immunity. This also makes opening up the cities and states much less risky for the majority of people. Yes, old guys such as myself are at higher risk and I will try to be careful. For the greater majority the disease currently is not much of a danger seems to be the case.
So many TV talking heads still are going on and on about tests for the active virus infections. I get there is some benefit for a few people. Specifically, for those showing symptoms and front line health care folks. The antibody test is the one which will make the difference. Antibody tests can give the numbers of those who have already had and survived the current strain of the virus. (I hope to be one) That test properly administered should tell us where we stand. I hope they get to this soon.
