Started 4/6/2020 Hello; About the numbers. Always bear in mind that the projections we have been getting are mostly educated guesses at best. I go along with the notion we must give the experts benefit of the doubt to some degree. However the range of predictive numbers among the experts predictions is much too great and is not tracking reality on the ground so far. It seems there are still some unknowns along with some not fully known things about the covid 19 virus itself. Also unknowns regarding the capacity of health care systems to deal with the disease and about possible treatments. We just do not know how many are now infected and more to the point how many have been infected in total.
At least two things skew the numbers to some degree. One being only a relatively small number of folks have tested been compared to the total population. I see this branch of testing being a big item in the news. Since it is not anywhere near possible yet to test all, my thinking being this is a thing of lesser importance. The exception of course is when people are ill. Testing the sick is very important so the care givers can take proper steps. If I feel OK and get a test just to find out, then the results are of little value to me as an individual. I could become infected within hours after a test result.
Another is we do not know with any real confidence the number of those who have been infected and recovered but had mild or no symptoms at all. The guess I have been seeing is an estimate of 25% have the disease without showing any symptoms. I figure it must be a guess based on some things the experts have seen but cannot quantify more specifically. My first personal guess is among the number of folks that have been tested and shown to be infected there must be some significant portion showing little to no symptoms. Is it 25%? Maybe, but it may turn out to be more or even less. Time may tell. So I am going to use 25% for now.
I did some figuring and came up with this. Multiply the known tested cases by 1.3333 to get a very rough estimate of the potential number of total cases. So if for example only there are 75,000 known tested cases I get 99,998 cases. Pretty close to the 25% estimate. So today (4-6-2020) (numbers following from that day) I see 356,942 known tested cases in the USA. That would yield around 475,910 cases total using the 25% no symptoms estimate.
As an exercise I tried to calculate a death rate using that number. The deaths due to covid 19 is at 10,524 in the USA. So I divide 10,524 by 475,910 and get 0.022. Am I correct that this is a 2.2% rate?
My continuing opinion remains that an antibody test is the more important test with regard to the whole population. The antibody test will be the more crucial in terms of ending the shutdowns and shelter in place orders. Back in late January thru early February I had a few weeks of a dry cough with a low fever from time to time. At the time I laid it off to the somewhat radical weather swings going on. Near record high temperatures followed by cold spells additionally dosed with excess rain. My area already has over 20 inches of rain over normal already for the year. Now I hope it was covid19. If so I am ok for a while, maybe a year or so. I will not know until the antibody test is available.
I do not want a test for the active infection unless I get sick,. But the antibody test will give vital information. If I have anti-bodies I can be out and about without much fear of becoming infected as I should be immune for a particular strain. I can go to work if needed and so on. One caution might be warranted. That being some understanding of how long the recovered continue to shed virus. My unsupported guess being less than ten days, probably only two or three days.