Ebola round 2

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pacu mom

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Jun 8, 2006
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We had four COVID-19 cases in our little community. Over the weekend they tested another 50 people. We now have four new cases. We are not going in the right direction. I resent the former neurosurgeon stating that healthy people should not wear masks in that viral video. It's the asymptomatic people with COVID-19 spreading the stuff around.

Last week I took my truck into the dealership for some attention. NOT ONE of the workers had a mask on, and here the cases doubled over the weekend :( I'll be wearing masks in public for a long time. I think I could survive COVID-19, but I have loved ones who most likely wouldn't if I gave it to them.
 
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Jexnell

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Jul 17, 2017
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Stats for my county as of noon today.

Number of positive tests 406
Number of deaths 25
Number of individuals tested 7,541

Cases, deaths by age

Age CasesDeaths
19 and younger170
20-29 years440
30-39 years520
40-49 years791
50-59 years690
60-69 years672
70-79 years335
80 and older4517
Cases, deaths by gender

GenderCasesDeaths
Female2449
Male16216

County population is 335k

The state has a 4 phase plan to reopen. We have moved into P1 that open parks, hunting/fishing, elective surgery.

No drive thru testing available, still only testing sick people going into the hospital.

State wide

Confirmed cases 18,433
Deaths 1001

Tested 289,000
 
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Ulu

Redtail Catfish
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Dec 13, 2018
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The Sunny San Joaquin
So far our county reports only 18 have died, and the new cases have dropped about 8%. Nearly 3800 total cases reported out of 1 million people.
 

skjl47

Potamotrygon
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May 16, 2011
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I'll be wearing masks in public for a long time. I think I could survive COVID-19, but I have loved ones who most likely wouldn't if I gave it to them.
Hello; Yes I likely will as well. This is a point we have not much talked about. Some seem upset about the opening back up of our society. We each can still take individual protective steps. I hardly ever ate out at a restaurant before so that will not be an issue for me. I also have not been to a walk in movie nor a sporting event in a long while.
I may be in a better situation right now in my life than many others since I do not have to make a living anymore. Some folks may have to take a chance to make a living. I hope you can continue to keep your loved ones safe.
 
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skjl47

Potamotrygon
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May 16, 2011
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Hello; A somewhat new talking point today. That being how the covid19 deaths are being counted. Back a few weeks I saw where a guideline came out pretty much saying to count a death as from covid19 if things seemed to fit. I guess now that there is a test they no longer have to guess if the person is infected.
What now seems to be a question is how many have died from having covid19 versus how many died with covid19. Turns out there is a difference. A person dies from covid19 if having the infection is the primary event that leads to death. That seems simple enough.

To die having a covid19 infection is somewhat different. My extreme made up example is a person gets tested and indeed does have the covid19. Crossing the street afterward the person gets run over by a Mack truck and has massive injuries. Well it seems under the current guidelines that person is counted as a covid19 death. Sounds unrealistic dose'nt it.
Not so fast to dismiss. A true example reported today is an infected person fell and hit his/her head receiving a massive head trauma. Apparently the head trauma was the actual cause of death but that death went into the books as a covid19 death.

While I have some speculation as to why some want the covid19 deaths to be overcounted and others want them to be undercounted, I will not get into that. What I want is a count as accurate as possible not skewed trash data.

It seems some states and countries have revised their covid19 death tolls down by significant percentages the last few days. Another wrinkle in the ongoing saga.
 

RD.

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Some seem upset about the opening back up of our society. We each can still take individual protective steps.
It is not the opening up of society that is upsetting, it is the manner in which the vast majority of individuals are conducting themselves in public, that is upsetting. As a society we are nowhere near herd immunity, if such a thing even exists, with this particular virus.

Wannabe epidemiologists on public forums have no idea what is coming next, but some things seem clear to me. Crowds are forming in public, masks and other preventative measures are not being followed by many, from my personal observations perhaps the vast majority. This is not done in secret meetings and clubs, behind closed doors, it is happening out in the open, at grocery stores, garden centres, etc. But at the same time our local hospital, presently with 1 person recovering from covid-19, in a closed off portion of the hospital, is preventing some of the most basic of procedures to be booked, because of the "potential" of the spread of this virus. So a trip to a cardiologist could be put off indefinitely, unless deemed urgent, by someone. That is ludicrous. From what I am seeing in public places, there not only is going to be a second wave, it will be like a Tsunami compared to the first wave. That's my wannabe epidemiologist prediction. I hope that I am wrong.
 
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Ulu

Redtail Catfish
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Dec 13, 2018
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That's our medical system in action.

Not every Dr is going to deal with virology.
Doctors here are staying home because they can't practice their specialties.
This includes many rules about who can get what treatment when.
I feel lucky that I don't have a health condition that is critical, but I have ones not being addressed.
 

skjl47

Potamotrygon
MFK Member
May 16, 2011
4,198
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Tennessee
It is not the opening up of society that is upsetting, it is the manner in which the vast majority of individuals are conducting themselves in public, that is upsetting. As a society we are nowhere near herd immunity, if such a thing even exists, with this particular virus.

Wannabe epidemiologists on public forums have no idea what is coming next, but some things seem clear to me. Crowds are forming in public, masks and other preventative measures are not being followed by many, from my personal observations perhaps the vast majority. This is not done in secret meetings and clubs, behind closed doors, it is happening out in the open, at grocery stores, garden centres, etc. But at the same time our local hospital, presently with 1 person recovering from covid-19, in a closed off portion of the hospital, is preventing some of the most basic of procedures to be booked, because of the "potential" of the spread of this virus. So a trip to a cardiologist could be put off indefinitely, unless deemed urgent, by someone. That is ludicrous. From what I am seeing in public places, there not only is going to be a second wave, it will be like a Tsunami compared to the first wave. That's my wannabe epidemiologist prediction. I hope that I am wrong.
Hello; since you quoted me I will reply. To set the scene let me say I am not sure how far back in this thread you started reading before beginning to post not on Ebola but on the covid19 virus. I add this because among my earliest posts about covid19 in this thread were statements about how I was not seeing much compliance with the suggested preventive measures. I did not observe much compliance back then and have not see very much as time went by. There was some compliance to be sure but not anywhere near a majority taking precautions. My personal observations were often backed up by news reports from many places in the world. Early on and from time to time since then I have stated I do not figure the social distancing and other measures to be very effective since so many simply were not taking the suggested precautions.

Did the shutdowns and prescribed personal measures make any difference? I think they must have to a limited extent. The schools, dinning places, sporting events, many "non-essential" businesses and such were closed. Add to this those few of us such as myself who did wear a mask and took some other personal measures. Trouble being of course that it only takes a few non-compliant infected out and about to continue to spread the virus which is what did happen. Likely the best that was accomplished during the shutdown was some level of the proclaimed "flattening of the curve". That flattening of the curve happened sometime back in the pandemic so that the dreaded condition of most medical facilities being overrun like they did in Italy did not happen, at least in the USA and some other places.

Of course then the goal posts were moved. The moved goalpost became an unrealistic idea, to me, that somehow the world could remain locked down for long periods of time. For three more months, for six more months and even by some "until there is a cure". The reality of course is there are other life altering considerations in this global society. Economics for sure which can have dire consequences, but there are other significant dire consequences from the existing shutdown. I posted a comment some time back about how around a million and a half people are already being newly pushed into starvation due to the shutdown. That ought to count for something.

Yes there likely will now be an uptick in new cases of the covid19 virus because more people are getting out and many are not taking precautions and the virus is still around. But as we both have stated there were already a lot of people out and not taking precautions all during the shutdown. I have never yet been out and seen everyone wearing a mask or keeping a social distance. In fact when I go into Wal-Mart I ask the person making the count at the door what my number is. During the lockdown my high number was a 232 and the other afternoon after my area opened up it was 234.

I guess I am a "Wannabe epidemiologists on public forums". Not too bad and I have been called worse. Since we both are speculating and neither has a crystal ball, I figure an uptick in new cases but not necessarily a tsunami. Even if the lockdowns had continued i figure the virus was going to continue to march thru the population at some rate.
 
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